From 47ce0e53f85abdfe217f6f467b196b6c1bee38ce Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Claude Date: Sat, 14 Nov 2026 20:15:53 +0000 Subject: [PATCH 1/5] Spec 017: test record on seed 344 (scored once), tables, supplement, tracks Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.2 Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_019erPajyAwQ6mBQ2Xz4xNHs --- experiments/20261114-tl5/README.md | 102 + experiments/20261114-tl5/ci.json | 1 + .../20261114-tl5/man2-out.periods.json | 1 + experiments/20261114-tl5/man2.periods.json | 1 + experiments/20261114-tl5/plan.json | 146 + experiments/20261114-tl5/run.json | 25 + experiments/20261114-tl5/score.txt | 5 + experiments/20261114-tl5/shift.periods.json | 1 + experiments/20261114-tl5/shift2.periods.json | 1 + experiments/20261114-tl5/summary.json | 5827 +++++++++++++++++ experiments/20261114-tl5/supplement.md | 26 + experiments/20261114-tl5/tables.md | 298 + experiments/20261114-tl5/tracks.npz | Bin 0 -> 92036 bytes scripts/research/tl5_charts.py | 3 +- scripts/research/tl5_supplement.py | 79 + scripts/research/tl5_tracks.py | 39 + 16 files changed, 6554 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-) create mode 100644 experiments/20261114-tl5/README.md create mode 100644 experiments/20261114-tl5/ci.json create mode 100644 experiments/20261114-tl5/man2-out.periods.json create mode 100644 experiments/20261114-tl5/man2.periods.json create mode 100644 experiments/20261114-tl5/plan.json create mode 100644 experiments/20261114-tl5/run.json create mode 100644 experiments/20261114-tl5/score.txt create mode 100644 experiments/20261114-tl5/shift.periods.json create mode 100644 experiments/20261114-tl5/shift2.periods.json create mode 100644 experiments/20261114-tl5/summary.json create mode 100644 experiments/20261114-tl5/supplement.md create mode 100644 experiments/20261114-tl5/tables.md create mode 100644 experiments/20261114-tl5/tracks.npz create mode 100644 scripts/research/tl5_supplement.py create mode 100644 scripts/research/tl5_tracks.py diff --git a/experiments/20261114-tl5/README.md b/experiments/20261114-tl5/README.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..e6cab847 --- /dev/null +++ b/experiments/20261114-tl5/README.md @@ -0,0 +1,102 @@ +# Spec 017: the shifted-prior gap on test seed 344 (2026-11-14) + +CI run 43618868241 (`timelate/tl-f-test`, commit 6c1f3f9, clean tree, plan +`configs/timelate/tl-f.json` `0b29a95d…` as registered; scored once). 1,150 periods, 1,044 +scored. Every table is in `tables.md` (generated from `summary.json` by +`scripts/research/tl5_tables.py`) and `supplement.md` (`tl5_supplement.py`); the figures +below are copied from them. Per-row errors: results branch +`results/timelate-tl-f-test-43618868241`. `tracks.npz` (`tl5_tracks.py`) holds the first +20 shifted periods' tracks for the slides. + +A registered study, not a gate: no pass or fail. The decision record +(`experiments/20261114-tl5-decision/`) fixed five estimands and the logic of the +recommendation before seeds 343 and 344 existed. + +## Soundness + +The true history with its times held is at 1.11 of the bound on tight rows (band 0.8 to +1.3); every Annex B true-history fit converged; 0.09 of Annex B references are held (limit +0.25; 0.22 on the shifted split). + +## The estimands, shifted split (500 periods, 451 scored, 1,475 whole true manoeuvres) + +| | Estimand | Threshold 10 | Threshold 20 | Threshold 40 | Tuning seed 342 | +| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | +| E1 | Share of true manoeuvres under the threshold | 0.28 [0.26, 0.31] | 0.37 [0.34, 0.39] | 0.47 [0.44, 0.50] | 0.24 / 0.33 / 0.47 | +| E3 | `ref-dT` ÷ `ref-full` | 1.34 [1.24, 1.45] | 1.58 [1.45, 1.73] | 2.02 [1.81, 2.24] | 1.27 / 1.62 / 2.18 | +| E4 | Control ÷ `ref-dT` | 1.70 [1.52, 1.90] | 1.43 [1.28, 1.61] | 1.12 [0.99, 1.27] | 1.59 / 1.25 / 0.93 | +| | Attainable share of the control's gap | 0.65 [0.55, 0.74] | 0.44 [0.33, 0.54] | 0.14 [-0.01, 0.27] | 0.66 / 0.32 / -0.11 | + +- **E2**, the control's miss rate by detectability band: 0.96 under 5, 0.79 from 5 to 10, + 0.55 from 10 to 20, 0.36 from 20 to 40, 0.30 from 40 to 100, 0.13 above 100 (tuning: + 0.97, 0.86, 0.65, 0.48, 0.31, 0.12). Its half-way point is between 10 and 40. +- **E5**, control ÷ the search under the targets' own prior: **1.17 [1.06, 1.29]** + (tuning: 1.02 [0.86, 1.22]). The tuning reading "knowing the true statistics does not + improve the track" does not hold on the test seed. The median per-period ratio is 1.02: + the gain is in a minority of periods (the control over twice as bad in 0.21, the + true-prior search in 0.13). +- The whole gap, control ÷ `ref-full`: 2.27 [2.04, 2.55], median per-period ratio 2.18. + +## What it shows + +**More than a third of the shifted targets' manoeuvres can barely be seen.** 0.37 add +less than 20 to the χ² of the true history's fit when left out (Annex B: 0.16; shifted 2: +0.08). The control misses 0.83 of those and 0.18 of the ones above 40. + +**The gap is part identifiability and part attainable, and the division depends on where +"detectable" is drawn.** At threshold 20, not being told the undetectable manoeuvres costs +a factor 1.58, and the control is a further 1.43 [1.28, 1.61] from that reference: +attainable share 0.44 [0.33, 0.54]. At 10 the share is 0.65; at 40 it is 0.14 and the +control is not separated from the reference (1.12 [0.99, 1.27]). The plan's rule reads +"mixed" on the shifted split, on Annex B (0.50 [0.29, 0.68]) and under outliers with +edited references (0.68 [0.46, 0.86]); "mostly attainable" on shifted 2 (0.91). + +**The tuning forecast was wrong in two places.** E4 at 20 is separated from 1 (the tuning +interval reached 0.96), and E5 is 1.17, not 1.02. Both say more is attainable than the +tuning seed's 134 periods suggested: a prior that matched the targets would close about a +fifth of the control's gap to the full reference (log 1.17 over log 2.27 = 0.19), and +would miss 0.12 of the manoeuvres above 40 against the control's 0.18, at the price of +more false ones (0.48 a period against 0.34). + +**The control's gap on Annex B data is of the same kind.** Control ÷ `ref-full` is 1.58 +[1.36, 1.85] there, with 0.16 of manoeuvres under 20 and the same miss curve by band. + +**The filters are far behind as tracks.** IMM ÷ control 4.8 (shifted) to 16 (shifted 2); +EKF 5.6 to 22. Read as whole-period tracks they are causal filters, not smoothers. + +## The recommendation, by the logic fixed in the decision record + +A proposer study is recommended only if E4 at threshold 20 has a lower limit above 1.10 +**and** the control misses more than a third of the manoeuvres above 40. + +- E4 at 20: 1.43 [1.28, 1.61]. Lower limit above 1.10: **yes** (forecast: no). +- The control misses 0.18 of the 782 manoeuvres above 40. More than a third: **no**. + +**Outcome of the logic: a proposer study is not recommended.** The recommendation is to +write the time-late track up and name what would add information. The first condition +held against the forecast, so this is "no" on one condition of two, not on both; the +owner decides. + +## Limits + +- Times held flatter every reference: E4 is an upper limit on what a perfect detector + could gain, E3 a lower limit on identifiability. 0.22 of shifted references drift when + their times are free. +- Detectability is computed with the other manoeuvres' times held; close manoeuvres can + hide each other, and the measure is not additive. +- Thresholds 10, 20 and 40 bracket the evidence's price for a manoeuvre under Annex B's + prior (about 22); under the targets' own prior the price is lower, and the true-prior + search finds 0.44 of manoeuvres between 5 and 10. +- Under outliers the references fitted to unedited bearings are no yardstick (control ÷ + `ref-full` 1.06; ÷ `ref-full-edit` 1.69): read the edited rows only. Only 0.04 of + outlier-split true-history fits converged on the unedited bearings. +- Period medians of relative range error; course and speed are in `tables.md` + (efficiency) and not in the estimands. +- One test seed; the tuning seed differed from it by more than its intervals on E4 and E5. + +## Not delivered + +- A proposer, a prior-mismatch diagnostic, a prior fitted to the period: named, not built. +- Detectability with times free, or jointly over pairs of manoeuvres. +- A smoothed IMM (the filters are scored as they are). +- Unit tests for `run4`/`study4` beyond those added in this spec's `test_timelate5.py`. diff --git a/experiments/20261114-tl5/ci.json b/experiments/20261114-tl5/ci.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..796526cf --- /dev/null +++ b/experiments/20261114-tl5/ci.json @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +{"run_id": "43618868241", "commit": "6c1f3f9b50504a1ef8eca3ace162d0cd88fdb50a", "cpu_model": "AMD EPYC 9V74 80-Core Processor"} diff --git 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"true": {"spans": [[804.1356386597707, 872.3883470623482]], "kinds": [[true, false]], "evidence": -75.41618611076848}}, "seconds": {"reference": 0.31, "plain/v3": 2.6, "search3/path": 0.01, "ctl/v3": 2.87, "ctl/broad": 3.25, "ctl/path": 0.01, "detectability": 0.4, "references": 1.13, "true": 2.87}, "detectability": [2531.6279885556864], "true_history_cost": 222.75998381913737}] diff --git a/experiments/20261114-tl5/plan.json b/experiments/20261114-tl5/plan.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..b06c13e6 --- /dev/null +++ b/experiments/20261114-tl5/plan.json @@ -0,0 +1,146 @@ +{ + "description": "Spec 017's registered study (2026-11-14): study L's control as registered, the detectability of each true manoeuvre, references told only the detectable ones, the search under the split's own prior, IMM and EKF beside. Bound by digest in the decision record; never edited after.", + "data_split": "train", + "splits": { + "man2": { + "ranges": "configs/timelate/tl-ranges.json", + "heldout_ranges": "configs/timelate/tl-heldout.json", + "what": "Annex B's manoeuvre statistics" + }, + "shift": { + "ranges": "configs/timelate/tl-shift-ranges.json", + "heldout_ranges": "configs/timelate/tl-heldout.json", + "what": "shorter legs, smaller turns, faster turn rates, more speed changes" + }, + "shift2": { + "ranges": "configs/timelate/tl-shift2-ranges.json", + "heldout_ranges": "configs/timelate/tl-heldout.json", + "what": "longer legs, larger and slower turns" + }, + "man2-out": { + "ranges": "configs/timelate/tl-ranges.json", + "heldout_ranges": "configs/timelate/tl-heldout.json", + "what": "2% outlying bearings (10 sd)", + "condition": "out-central", + "edited_reference": true + } + }, + "prior": "configs/timelate/tl-ranges.json", + "prior_broad": "configs/timelate/tl-broad.json", + "gh_plan": "configs/gateh/gh-a.json", + "references": { + "imm": "imm-cv0.03-ct1-w0.01-s0.0003-p4-r2", + "ekf": "ekf-sa0.00003-p4-r0.5" + }, + "settings": { + "steps": 12, + "max_manoeuvres": 10, + "candidates": 10, + "score_every": 6, + "systems": [ + "search3", + "ctl" + ], + "temperatures": [ + 1 + ], + "margins": [ + 1 + ], + "quiets": [ + 0.01 + ], + "store_tracks": 20, + "detect_thresholds": [ + 10, + 20, + 40 + ] + }, + "runner": "run5", + "reference": { + "sound": "history-fixed", + "tight_bound": 0.05 + }, + "study": { + "match_tolerance_s": 120.0, + "soundness_band": [ + 0.8, + 1.3 + ], + "convergence_min": 0.9, + "reference_flagged_max": 0.25 + }, + "shifted": { + "control": "ctl-d1-q0.01", + "systems": [ + "ctl-d1-q0.01", + "search3", + "true", + "c2" + ], + "primary_threshold": 20 + }, + "comparisons": [ + [ + "ctl-d1-q0.01", + "true" + ], + [ + "ctl-d1-q0.01", + "ref-full" + ], + [ + "ctl-d1-q0.01", + "ref-d10" + ], + [ + "ctl-d1-q0.01", + "ref-d20" + ], + [ + "ctl-d1-q0.01", + "ref-d40" + ], + [ + "ref-d10", + "ref-full" + ], + [ + "ref-d20", + "ref-full" + ], + [ + "ref-d40", + "ref-full" + ], + [ + "true", + "ref-full" + ], + [ + "imm", + "ctl-d1-q0.01" + ], + [ + "ekf", + "ctl-d1-q0.01" + ], + [ + "c2", + "ctl-d1-q0.01" + ], + [ + "ref-full", + "ref-full-edit" + ], + [ + "ctl-d1-q0.01", + "ref-full-edit" + ], + [ + "ctl-d1-q0.01", + "ref-d20-edit" + ] + ] +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/experiments/20261114-tl5/run.json b/experiments/20261114-tl5/run.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..58a77fcc --- /dev/null +++ b/experiments/20261114-tl5/run.json @@ -0,0 +1,25 @@ +{ + "plan": "configs/timelate/tl-f.json", + "seed": 344, + "count": 1350, + "splits": { + "man2": { + "start": 0, + "periods": 300 + }, + "shift": { + "start": 0, + "periods": 500 + }, + "shift2": { + "start": 0, + "periods": 200 + }, + "man2-out": { + "start": 0, + "periods": 150 + } + }, + "shard_size": 10, + "what": "spec 017 test: seed 344 (never generated before), scored once" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/experiments/20261114-tl5/score.txt b/experiments/20261114-tl5/score.txt new file mode 100644 index 00000000..066ae9c9 --- /dev/null +++ b/experiments/20261114-tl5/score.txt @@ -0,0 +1,5 @@ +soundness {"reference_efficiency_tight": 1.1106166930633121, "band": [0.8, 1.3], "history_converged_share": 1.0, "convergence_min": 0.9, "reference_flagged_share": 0.09333333333333334, "reference_flagged_max": 0.25, "pass": true} +man2: 300 periods, 274 scored +shift: 500 periods, 451 scored +shift2: 200 periods, 184 scored +man2-out: 150 periods, 135 scored diff --git a/experiments/20261114-tl5/shift.periods.json b/experiments/20261114-tl5/shift.periods.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..2bf6d032 --- /dev/null +++ b/experiments/20261114-tl5/shift.periods.json @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +[{"ordinal": 0, "rows": 366, "seconds_long": 1825.0, "bearings": 343, "true": [[580.0, 675.0]], "true_kinds": [[false, true]], "true_cut": [false], "reference_flagged": 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"c81ac54664fc6823a8a0e013e2a6cea68fcab11b88e60a8fc9bb3542d8e38ac4" + ], + "seed": [ + 344 + ], + "search_code_sha256": [ + "b32247f8161055886f515ba6150d259063280d631900620f539dbdd457d8c4e3" + ], + "git_commit": [ + "6c1f3f9b50504a1ef8eca3ace162d0cd88fdb50a" + ], + "git_dirty": false, + "condition": [ + "out-central" + ], + "thinning": [ + "none" + ] + } + } +} diff --git a/experiments/20261114-tl5/supplement.md b/experiments/20261114-tl5/supplement.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..2360af94 --- /dev/null +++ b/experiments/20261114-tl5/supplement.md @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +## Manoeuvres missed, pooled over detectability bands (matched within 120 s) + +| Split | System | Under 20 (manoeuvres) | Above 40 (manoeuvres) | +| --- | --- | --- | --- | +| Annex B | `ctl-d1-q0.01` | 0.81 (80) | 0.08 (402) | +| Annex B | `search3` | 0.75 (80) | 0.08 (402) | +| Annex B | `true` | 0.82 (80) | 0.08 (402) | +| Annex B | `c2` | 0.96 (80) | 0.41 (402) | +| Shifted | `ctl-d1-q0.01` | 0.83 (542) | 0.18 (782) | +| Shifted | `search3` | 0.84 (542) | 0.17 (782) | +| Shifted | `true` | 0.70 (542) | 0.12 (782) | +| Shifted | `c2` | 0.93 (542) | 0.49 (782) | +| Shifted 2 | `ctl-d1-q0.01` | 0.84 (19) | 0.07 (198) | +| Shifted 2 | `search3` | 0.74 (19) | 0.08 (198) | +| Shifted 2 | `true` | 0.84 (19) | 0.06 (198) | +| Shifted 2 | `c2` | 0.95 (19) | 0.36 (198) | +| Outliers | `ctl-d1-q0.01` | 0.76 (33) | 0.08 (197) | +| Outliers | `search3` | 0.82 (33) | 0.18 (197) | +| Outliers | `true` | 0.76 (33) | 0.11 (197) | +| Outliers | `c2` | 0.85 (33) | 0.50 (197) | + +## The recommendation's logic (decision record), shifted split + +- E4 at threshold 20, control ÷ `ref-d20`: 1.43 [1.28, 1.61]; lower limit above 1.10: **yes**. +- The control misses 0.18 of the 782 manoeuvres above 40; more than a third: **no**. +- Both needed for a proposer study to be recommended: **not recommended**. diff --git a/experiments/20261114-tl5/tables.md b/experiments/20261114-tl5/tables.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..2de66033 --- /dev/null +++ b/experiments/20261114-tl5/tables.md @@ -0,0 +1,298 @@ +## Median period range error + +| System | Annex B | Shifted | Shifted 2 | Outliers | +| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | +| Periods (scored) | 300 (274) | 500 (451) | 200 (184) | 150 (135) | +| `c2` | 0.087 | 0.140 | 0.060 | 0.235 | +| `ctl` | 0.033 | 0.087 | 0.025 | 0.039 | +| `ctl-d1-q0.01` | 0.033 | 0.087 | 0.024 | 0.038 | +| `ekf` | 0.593 | 0.516 | 0.621 | 0.665 | +| `imm` | 0.436 | 0.442 | 0.439 | 0.478 | +| `one-leg` | 0.450 | 0.358 | 0.358 | 0.420 | +| `ref-d10` | 0.024 | 0.047 | 0.016 | 0.038 | +| `ref-d10-edit` | – | – | – | 0.024 | +| `ref-d20` | 0.026 | 0.056 | 0.017 | 0.040 | +| `ref-d20-edit` | – | – | – | 0.028 | +| `ref-d40` | 0.030 | 0.074 | 0.021 | 0.044 | +| `ref-d40-edit` | – | – | – | 0.033 | +| `ref-full` | 0.022 | 0.035 | 0.017 | 0.036 | +| `ref-full-edit` | – | – | – | 0.021 | +| `search3` | 0.035 | 0.090 | 0.028 | 0.064 | +| `search3-d1-q0.01` | 0.036 | 0.091 | 0.028 | 0.064 | +| `true` | 0.034 | 0.071 | 0.023 | 0.040 | + +## Detectability of the whole true manoeuvres (χ² their omission adds) + +| Split | Manoeuvres | 10% | 25% | Median | 75% | 90% | Under 10 | Under 20 | Under 40 | +| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | +| Annex B | 516 | 9.8 | 51.4 | 296.0 | 1777.9 | 8747.4 | 0.10 [0.08, 0.13] | 0.16 [0.13, 0.19] | 0.22 [0.19, 0.26] | +| Shifted | 1475 | 1.1 | 7.6 | 49.9 | 305.0 | 1410.6 | 0.28 [0.26, 0.31] | 0.37 [0.34, 0.39] | 0.47 [0.44, 0.50] | +| Shifted 2 | 228 | 30.8 | 155.6 | 915.3 | 5628.3 | 42964.3 | 0.06 [0.04, 0.10] | 0.08 [0.05, 0.13] | 0.13 [0.09, 0.18] | +| Outliers | 248 | 11.3 | 52.0 | 317.1 | 1841.8 | 7463.9 | 0.10 [0.07, 0.14] | 0.13 [0.10, 0.18] | 0.21 [0.16, 0.26] | + +## Share of true manoeuvres missed, by detectability band (matched within 120 s) + +### Annex B + +| Detectability | Manoeuvres | `ctl-d1-q0.01` | `search3` | `true` | `c2` | +| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | +| 0-5 | 34 | 1.00 (34) | 0.97 (34) | 1.00 (34) | 1.00 (34) | +| 5-10 | 19 | 0.84 (19) | 0.68 (19) | 0.84 (19) | 0.89 (19) | +| 10-20 | 27 | 0.56 (27) | 0.52 (27) | 0.59 (27) | 0.96 (27) | +| 20-40 | 34 | 0.38 (34) | 0.41 (34) | 0.44 (34) | 0.68 (34) | +| 40-100 | 56 | 0.21 (56) | 0.20 (56) | 0.20 (56) | 0.57 (56) | +| 100+ | 346 | 0.06 (346) | 0.07 (346) | 0.07 (346) | 0.38 (346) | + +### Shifted + +| Detectability | Manoeuvres | `ctl-d1-q0.01` | `search3` | `true` | `c2` | +| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | +| 0-5 | 304 | 0.96 (304) | 0.97 (304) | 0.88 (304) | 0.97 (304) | +| 5-10 | 112 | 0.79 (112) | 0.80 (112) | 0.56 (112) | 0.89 (112) | +| 10-20 | 126 | 0.55 (126) | 0.56 (126) | 0.40 (126) | 0.87 (126) | +| 20-40 | 151 | 0.36 (151) | 0.39 (151) | 0.30 (151) | 0.78 (151) | +| 40-100 | 208 | 0.30 (208) | 0.30 (208) | 0.22 (208) | 0.66 (208) | +| 100+ | 574 | 0.13 (574) | 0.13 (574) | 0.09 (574) | 0.42 (574) | + +### Shifted 2 + +| Detectability | Manoeuvres | `ctl-d1-q0.01` | `search3` | `true` | `c2` | +| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | +| 0-5 | 6 | 1.00 (6) | 1.00 (6) | 1.00 (6) | 1.00 (6) | +| 5-10 | 8 | 0.88 (8) | 0.75 (8) | 1.00 (8) | 0.88 (8) | +| 10-20 | 5 | 0.60 (5) | 0.40 (5) | 0.40 (5) | 1.00 (5) | +| 20-40 | 11 | 0.18 (11) | 0.27 (11) | 0.45 (11) | 0.82 (11) | +| 40-100 | 19 | 0.11 (19) | 0.16 (19) | 0.16 (19) | 0.58 (19) | +| 100+ | 179 | 0.07 (179) | 0.07 (179) | 0.05 (179) | 0.34 (179) | + +### Outliers + +| Detectability | Manoeuvres | `ctl-d1-q0.01` | `search3` | `true` | `c2` | +| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | +| 0-5 | 16 | 0.88 (16) | 0.88 (16) | 0.88 (16) | 0.88 (16) | +| 5-10 | 8 | 0.62 (8) | 0.88 (8) | 0.62 (8) | 1.00 (8) | +| 10-20 | 9 | 0.67 (9) | 0.67 (9) | 0.67 (9) | 0.67 (9) | +| 20-40 | 18 | 0.39 (18) | 0.61 (18) | 0.50 (18) | 0.61 (18) | +| 40-100 | 34 | 0.26 (34) | 0.32 (34) | 0.29 (34) | 0.65 (34) | +| 100+ | 163 | 0.04 (163) | 0.15 (163) | 0.07 (163) | 0.47 (163) | + +## The gap to the true history, split: the attainable share at each threshold + +(the share of log(system ÷ full reference) that a reference told only the manoeuvres above the threshold still closes; the rest is identifiability) + +| Split | System | Threshold 10 | Threshold 20 | Threshold 40 | +| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | +| Annex B | `ctl-d1-q0.01` | 0.78 [0.63, 0.89] | 0.50 [0.29, 0.68] | 0.17 [-0.19, 0.42] | +| Annex B | `search3` | 0.80 [0.68, 0.90] | 0.55 [0.36, 0.71] | 0.25 [-0.05, 0.47] | +| Annex B | `true` | 0.80 [0.68, 0.90] | 0.55 [0.36, 0.70] | 0.24 [-0.06, 0.46] | +| Annex B | `c2` | 0.92 [0.88, 0.96] | 0.83 [0.76, 0.89] | 0.71 [0.61, 0.80] | +| Shifted | `ctl-d1-q0.01` | 0.65 [0.55, 0.74] | 0.44 [0.33, 0.54] | 0.14 [-0.01, 0.27] | +| Shifted | `search3` | 0.66 [0.58, 0.75] | 0.47 [0.37, 0.57] | 0.19 [0.06, 0.31] | +| Shifted | `true` | 0.56 [0.43, 0.67] | 0.31 [0.15, 0.44] | -0.06 [-0.29, 0.12] | +| Shifted | `c2` | 0.79 [0.73, 0.84] | 0.66 [0.60, 0.72] | 0.49 [0.41, 0.56] | +| Shifted 2 | `ctl-d1-q0.01` | 0.91 [0.72, 1.07] | 0.91 [0.68, 1.27] | 0.66 [0.36, 0.91] | +| Shifted 2 | `search3` | 0.92 [0.77, 1.05] | 0.93 [0.73, 1.19] | 0.72 [0.48, 0.93] | +| Shifted 2 | `true` | 0.90 [0.69, 1.08] | 0.90 [0.65, 1.34] | 0.61 [0.26, 0.89] | +| Shifted 2 | `c2` | 0.97 [0.91, 1.02] | 0.97 [0.89, 1.07] | 0.89 [0.81, 0.97] | +| Outliers | `ctl-d1-q0.01` | 0.94 [-2.08, 5.13] | -0.59 [-10.66, 12.60] | -2.11 [-19.99, 20.77] | +| Outliers | `search3` | 0.99 [0.88, 1.13] | 0.85 [0.66, 1.02] | 0.71 [0.46, 0.91] | +| Outliers | `true` | 0.95 [-2.04, 3.86] | -0.39 [-9.56, 9.22] | -1.72 [-17.99, 16.41] | +| Outliers | `c2` | 1.00 [0.96, 1.05] | 0.95 [0.89, 1.01] | 0.90 [0.83, 0.97] | +| Outliers, edited bearings | `ctl-d1-q0.01` | 0.87 [0.71, 1.01] | 0.68 [0.46, 0.86] | 0.35 [0.00, 0.58] | +| Outliers, edited bearings | `search3` | 0.94 [0.86, 1.00] | 0.84 [0.74, 0.93] | 0.68 [0.52, 0.81] | +| Outliers, edited bearings | `true` | 0.87 [0.71, 1.01] | 0.69 [0.47, 0.86] | 0.36 [0.02, 0.59] | +| Outliers, edited bearings | `c2` | 0.97 [0.93, 1.00] | 0.92 [0.87, 0.97] | 0.84 [0.77, 0.91] | + +| Split | Verdict by the rule (control, threshold 20) | +| --- | --- | +| Annex B | mixed | +| Shifted | mixed | +| Shifted 2 | mostly attainable | +| Outliers | mixed | + +## Paired comparisons (a ÷ b per period; above 1: b is better) + +### Annex B + +| a | b | Ratio | Median per-period ratio | a over twice as bad | b over twice as bad | +| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | +| `c2` | `ctl-d1-q0.01` | 2.35 [2.00, 2.79] | 1.79 | 0.45 | 0.07 | +| `ctl-d1-q0.01` | `ref-d10` | 1.43 [1.24, 1.66] | 1.13 | 0.28 | 0.12 | +| `ctl-d1-q0.01` | `ref-d20` | 1.26 [1.10, 1.45] | 1.07 | 0.25 | 0.15 | +| `ctl-d1-q0.01` | `ref-d40` | 1.08 [0.94, 1.25] | 1.00 | 0.22 | 0.19 | +| `ctl-d1-q0.01` | `ref-full` | 1.58 [1.36, 1.85] | 1.30 | 0.34 | 0.11 | +| `ctl-d1-q0.01` | `true` | 0.96 [0.90, 1.01] | 1.00 | 0.01 | 0.03 | +| `ekf` | `ctl-d1-q0.01` | 15.61 [11.69, 21.22] | 15.23 | 0.92 | 0.00 | +| `imm` | `ctl-d1-q0.01` | 12.58 [9.45, 16.89] | 11.26 | 0.88 | 0.01 | +| `ref-d10` | `ref-full` | 1.11 [1.05, 1.17] | 1.00 | 0.07 | 0.01 | +| `ref-d20` | `ref-full` | 1.25 [1.16, 1.36] | 1.00 | 0.13 | 0.01 | +| `ref-d40` | `ref-full` | 1.46 [1.31, 1.65] | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.02 | +| `search3` | `c2` | 0.45 [0.38, 0.53] | 0.60 | 0.07 | 0.44 | +| `search3` | `ctl` | 1.06 [1.00, 1.12] | 1.00 | 0.04 | 0.01 | +| `search3` | `ctl-d1-q0.01` | 1.05 [0.99, 1.12] | 1.00 | 0.04 | 0.02 | +| `search3` | `ekf` | 0.06 [0.05, 0.08] | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.94 | +| `search3` | `imm` | 0.08 [0.06, 0.10] | 0.09 | 0.01 | 0.91 | +| `search3` | `ref-d10` | 1.50 [1.30, 1.75] | 1.14 | 0.30 | 0.11 | +| `search3` | `ref-d20` | 1.32 [1.15, 1.53] | 1.09 | 0.27 | 0.14 | +| `search3` | `ref-d40` | 1.13 [0.98, 1.32] | 1.01 | 0.23 | 0.18 | +| `search3` | `ref-full` | 1.66 [1.43, 1.94] | 1.33 | 0.36 | 0.10 | +| `search3` | `search3-d1-q0.01` | 0.99 [0.96, 1.00] | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | +| `search3` | `true` | 1.01 [0.97, 1.04] | 1.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | +| `true` | `ref-full` | 1.65 [1.42, 1.93] | 1.33 | 0.36 | 0.11 | + +### Shifted + +| a | b | Ratio | Median per-period ratio | a over twice as bad | b over twice as bad | +| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | +| `c2` | `ctl-d1-q0.01` | 1.73 [1.55, 1.94] | 1.37 | 0.37 | 0.09 | +| `ctl-d1-q0.01` | `ref-d10` | 1.70 [1.52, 1.90] | 1.34 | 0.38 | 0.12 | +| `ctl-d1-q0.01` | `ref-d20` | 1.43 [1.28, 1.61] | 1.17 | 0.33 | 0.14 | +| `ctl-d1-q0.01` | `ref-d40` | 1.12 [0.99, 1.27] | 1.04 | 0.27 | 0.22 | +| `ctl-d1-q0.01` | `ref-full` | 2.27 [2.04, 2.55] | 2.18 | 0.53 | 0.11 | +| `ctl-d1-q0.01` | `true` | 1.17 [1.06, 1.29] | 1.02 | 0.21 | 0.13 | +| `ekf` | `ctl-d1-q0.01` | 5.62 [4.67, 6.76] | 5.29 | 0.74 | 0.02 | +| `imm` | `ctl-d1-q0.01` | 4.78 [3.98, 5.72] | 4.14 | 0.74 | 0.03 | +| `ref-d10` | `ref-full` | 1.34 [1.24, 1.45] | 1.00 | 0.22 | 0.05 | +| `ref-d20` | `ref-full` | 1.58 [1.45, 1.73] | 1.03 | 0.30 | 0.05 | +| `ref-d40` | `ref-full` | 2.02 [1.81, 2.24] | 1.43 | 0.42 | 0.04 | +| `search3` | `c2` | 0.61 [0.54, 0.68] | 0.78 | 0.10 | 0.35 | +| `search3` | `ctl` | 1.05 [1.00, 1.11] | 1.00 | 0.08 | 0.05 | +| `search3` | `ctl-d1-q0.01` | 1.05 [0.99, 1.11] | 1.00 | 0.08 | 0.05 | +| `search3` | `ekf` | 0.18 [0.16, 0.22] | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.74 | +| `search3` | `imm` | 0.22 [0.18, 0.26] | 0.28 | 0.03 | 0.72 | +| `search3` | `ref-d10` | 1.78 [1.59, 1.99] | 1.44 | 0.39 | 0.10 | +| `search3` | `ref-d20` | 1.50 [1.34, 1.69] | 1.27 | 0.34 | 0.14 | +| `search3` | `ref-d40` | 1.18 [1.05, 1.33] | 1.08 | 0.29 | 0.22 | +| `search3` | `ref-full` | 2.38 [2.12, 2.68] | 2.31 | 0.54 | 0.09 | +| `search3` | `search3-d1-q0.01` | 1.00 [0.99, 1.01] | 1.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | +| `search3` | `true` | 1.23 [1.12, 1.35] | 1.04 | 0.23 | 0.12 | +| `true` | `ref-full` | 1.94 [1.72, 2.20] | 1.80 | 0.46 | 0.11 | + +### Shifted 2 + +| a | b | Ratio | Median per-period ratio | a over twice as bad | b over twice as bad | +| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | +| `c2` | `ctl-d1-q0.01` | 2.25 [1.88, 2.76] | 1.52 | 0.46 | 0.10 | +| `ctl-d1-q0.01` | `ref-d10` | 1.44 [1.20, 1.71] | 1.17 | 0.32 | 0.12 | +| `ctl-d1-q0.01` | `ref-d20` | 1.44 [1.22, 1.69] | 1.14 | 0.32 | 0.14 | +| `ctl-d1-q0.01` | `ref-d40` | 1.30 [1.10, 1.55] | 1.03 | 0.30 | 0.18 | +| `ctl-d1-q0.01` | `ref-full` | 1.49 [1.25, 1.79] | 1.24 | 0.34 | 0.13 | +| `ctl-d1-q0.01` | `true` | 1.05 [0.96, 1.14] | 1.00 | 0.08 | 0.05 | +| `ekf` | `ctl-d1-q0.01` | 21.64 [15.16, 31.11] | 26.28 | 0.94 | 0.01 | +| `imm` | `ctl-d1-q0.01` | 16.11 [11.12, 22.86] | 16.94 | 0.92 | 0.01 | +| `ref-d10` | `ref-full` | 1.04 [0.98, 1.11] | 1.00 | 0.03 | 0.02 | +| `ref-d20` | `ref-full` | 1.04 [0.92, 1.14] | 1.00 | 0.05 | 0.03 | +| `ref-d40` | `ref-full` | 1.15 [1.03, 1.28] | 1.00 | 0.09 | 0.03 | +| `search3` | `c2` | 0.48 [0.40, 0.58] | 0.66 | 0.12 | 0.43 | +| `search3` | `ctl` | 1.08 [0.99, 1.19] | 1.00 | 0.08 | 0.05 | +| `search3` | `ctl-d1-q0.01` | 1.09 [0.99, 1.19] | 1.00 | 0.09 | 0.05 | +| `search3` | `ekf` | 0.05 [0.04, 0.07] | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.92 | +| `search3` | `imm` | 0.07 [0.05, 0.10] | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.92 | +| `search3` | `ref-d10` | 1.56 [1.32, 1.85] | 1.23 | 0.33 | 0.10 | +| `search3` | `ref-d20` | 1.57 [1.33, 1.84] | 1.22 | 0.32 | 0.11 | +| `search3` | `ref-d40` | 1.41 [1.19, 1.68] | 1.08 | 0.30 | 0.15 | +| `search3` | `ref-full` | 1.62 [1.36, 1.93] | 1.26 | 0.34 | 0.09 | +| `search3` | `search3-d1-q0.01` | 1.00 [0.99, 1.02] | 1.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | +| `search3` | `true` | 1.14 [1.03, 1.26] | 1.00 | 0.11 | 0.05 | +| `true` | `ref-full` | 1.43 [1.20, 1.70] | 1.25 | 0.34 | 0.12 | + +### Outliers + +| a | b | Ratio | Median per-period ratio | a over twice as bad | b over twice as bad | +| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | +| `c2` | `ctl-d1-q0.01` | 5.21 [4.05, 6.61] | 4.83 | 0.72 | 0.01 | +| `ctl-d1-q0.01` | `ref-d10` | 1.05 [0.85, 1.32] | 0.90 | 0.29 | 0.29 | +| `ctl-d1-q0.01` | `ref-d20` | 0.97 [0.78, 1.20] | 0.89 | 0.26 | 0.31 | +| `ctl-d1-q0.01` | `ref-d20-edit` | 1.43 [1.19, 1.75] | 1.08 | 0.30 | 0.10 | +| `ctl-d1-q0.01` | `ref-d40` | 0.89 [0.72, 1.10] | 0.81 | 0.23 | 0.33 | +| `ctl-d1-q0.01` | `ref-full` | 1.06 [0.85, 1.32] | 0.91 | 0.29 | 0.30 | +| `ctl-d1-q0.01` | `ref-full-edit` | 1.69 [1.37, 2.11] | 1.34 | 0.38 | 0.10 | +| `ctl-d1-q0.01` | `true` | 0.99 [0.93, 1.06] | 1.00 | 0.04 | 0.03 | +| `ekf` | `ctl-d1-q0.01` | 12.86 [8.68, 18.74] | 13.60 | 0.91 | 0.00 | +| `imm` | `ctl-d1-q0.01` | 10.70 [7.25, 15.75] | 10.01 | 0.90 | 0.04 | +| `ref-d10` | `ref-full` | 1.00 [0.93, 1.07] | 1.00 | 0.04 | 0.03 | +| `ref-d20` | `ref-full` | 1.09 [0.99, 1.21] | 1.00 | 0.09 | 0.03 | +| `ref-d40` | `ref-full` | 1.19 [1.05, 1.36] | 1.00 | 0.14 | 0.04 | +| `ref-full` | `ref-full-edit` | 1.60 [1.32, 1.92] | 1.53 | 0.37 | 0.13 | +| `search3` | `c2` | 0.33 [0.26, 0.43] | 0.37 | 0.06 | 0.58 | +| `search3` | `ctl` | 1.72 [1.37, 2.24] | 1.48 | 0.39 | 0.13 | +| `search3` | `ctl-d1-q0.01` | 1.71 [1.36, 2.24] | 1.48 | 0.38 | 0.13 | +| `search3` | `ekf` | 0.12 [0.08, 0.19] | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.79 | +| `search3` | `imm` | 0.15 [0.09, 0.24] | 0.20 | 0.04 | 0.73 | +| `search3` | `ref-d10` | 1.81 [1.44, 2.35] | 1.38 | 0.38 | 0.14 | +| `search3` | `ref-d10-edit` | 2.71 [2.07, 3.63] | 2.08 | 0.53 | 0.11 | +| `search3` | `ref-d20` | 1.66 [1.32, 2.13] | 1.23 | 0.36 | 0.15 | +| `search3` | `ref-d20-edit` | 2.45 [1.89, 3.29] | 2.02 | 0.50 | 0.12 | +| `search3` | `ref-d40` | 1.52 [1.21, 1.97] | 1.18 | 0.31 | 0.17 | +| `search3` | `ref-d40-edit` | 2.05 [1.59, 2.76] | 1.62 | 0.45 | 0.14 | +| `search3` | `ref-full` | 1.81 [1.46, 2.34] | 1.47 | 0.39 | 0.15 | +| `search3` | `ref-full-edit` | 2.90 [2.20, 3.88] | 2.32 | 0.56 | 0.11 | +| `search3` | `search3-d1-q0.01` | 1.00 [0.98, 1.01] | 1.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | +| `search3` | `true` | 1.70 [1.34, 2.24] | 1.51 | 0.37 | 0.15 | +| `true` | `ref-full` | 1.07 [0.86, 1.33] | 0.91 | 0.28 | 0.28 | + +## Manoeuvres missed (share) and false (per period), matched within 60, 120 and 240 s + +| Split | System | Missed 60 / 120 / 240 | False 60 / 120 / 240 | +| --- | --- | --- | --- | +| Annex B | `c2` | 0.74 / 0.51 / 0.33 | 1.14 / 0.75 / 0.44 | +| Annex B | `ctl` | 0.31 / 0.21 / 0.16 | 0.37 / 0.19 / 0.09 | +| Annex B | `ctl-d1-q0.01` | 0.31 / 0.22 / 0.16 | 0.35 / 0.18 / 0.08 | +| Annex B | `search3` | 0.31 / 0.21 / 0.16 | 0.36 / 0.18 / 0.09 | +| Annex B | `search3-d1-q0.01` | 0.32 / 0.22 / 0.16 | 0.35 / 0.17 / 0.08 | +| Annex B | `true` | 0.32 / 0.22 / 0.17 | 0.36 / 0.18 / 0.09 | +| Shifted | `c2` | 0.85 / 0.68 / 0.52 | 1.47 / 0.95 / 0.48 | +| Shifted | `ctl` | 0.54 / 0.43 / 0.37 | 0.66 / 0.35 / 0.17 | +| Shifted | `ctl-d1-q0.01` | 0.54 / 0.44 / 0.38 | 0.65 / 0.34 / 0.17 | +| Shifted | `search3` | 0.54 / 0.44 / 0.37 | 0.67 / 0.38 / 0.17 | +| Shifted | `search3-d1-q0.01` | 0.54 / 0.45 / 0.38 | 0.64 / 0.36 / 0.16 | +| Shifted | `true` | 0.46 / 0.35 / 0.29 | 0.81 / 0.48 / 0.28 | +| Shifted 2 | `c2` | 0.67 / 0.43 / 0.28 | 0.90 / 0.62 / 0.43 | +| Shifted 2 | `ctl` | 0.26 / 0.14 / 0.07 | 0.35 / 0.18 / 0.10 | +| Shifted 2 | `ctl-d1-q0.01` | 0.27 / 0.14 / 0.07 | 0.32 / 0.14 / 0.06 | +| Shifted 2 | `search3` | 0.27 / 0.14 / 0.07 | 0.35 / 0.17 / 0.08 | +| Shifted 2 | `search3-d1-q0.01` | 0.27 / 0.15 / 0.07 | 0.33 / 0.16 / 0.07 | +| Shifted 2 | `true` | 0.25 / 0.14 / 0.08 | 0.24 / 0.11 / 0.03 | +| Outliers | `c2` | 0.77 / 0.56 / 0.38 | 2.58 / 2.21 / 1.92 | +| Outliers | `ctl` | 0.32 / 0.19 / 0.13 | 0.45 / 0.23 / 0.13 | +| Outliers | `ctl-d1-q0.01` | 0.32 / 0.19 / 0.14 | 0.41 / 0.19 / 0.10 | +| Outliers | `search3` | 0.43 / 0.29 / 0.18 | 0.89 / 0.66 / 0.45 | +| Outliers | `search3-d1-q0.01` | 0.43 / 0.29 / 0.18 | 0.85 / 0.62 / 0.41 | +| Outliers | `true` | 0.34 / 0.22 / 0.15 | 0.43 / 0.22 / 0.10 | + +## References held, and efficiency against the bound (range, course, speed) + +| Split | References drifting when free | System | Range | Course | Speed | +| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | +| Annex B | 0.09 | `ctl-d1-q0.01` | 1.65 | 1.73 | 1.52 | +| Annex B | 0.09 | `search3` | 1.68 | 1.71 | 1.51 | +| Annex B | 0.09 | `true` | 1.66 | 1.68 | 1.40 | +| Annex B | 0.09 | `ref-full` | 1.01 | 1.01 | 0.99 | +| Annex B | 0.09 | `ref-d20` | 1.26 | 1.18 | 1.20 | +| Annex B | 0.09 | `imm` | 12.44 | 18.00 | 12.31 | +| Annex B | 0.09 | `ekf` | 13.69 | 21.77 | 12.72 | +| Annex B | 0.09 | `c2` | 3.45 | 4.03 | 3.49 | +| Shifted | 0.22 | `ctl-d1-q0.01` | 2.10 | 2.50 | 1.96 | +| Shifted | 0.22 | `search3` | 2.20 | 2.50 | 2.03 | +| Shifted | 0.22 | `true` | 1.87 | 1.98 | 1.66 | +| Shifted | 0.22 | `ref-full` | 1.00 | 0.90 | 0.93 | +| Shifted | 0.22 | `ref-d20` | 1.50 | 1.56 | 1.43 | +| Shifted | 0.22 | `imm` | 7.32 | 7.69 | 5.64 | +| Shifted | 0.22 | `ekf` | 7.71 | 9.37 | 5.77 | +| Shifted | 0.22 | `c2` | 3.51 | 4.48 | 3.25 | +| Shifted 2 | 0.07 | `ctl-d1-q0.01` | 1.75 | 1.96 | 1.52 | +| Shifted 2 | 0.07 | `search3` | 1.82 | 1.84 | 1.52 | +| Shifted 2 | 0.07 | `true` | 1.69 | 1.87 | 1.49 | +| Shifted 2 | 0.07 | `ref-full` | 1.06 | 1.19 | 1.05 | +| Shifted 2 | 0.07 | `ref-d20` | 1.15 | 1.21 | 1.11 | +| Shifted 2 | 0.07 | `imm` | 15.67 | 24.17 | 15.56 | +| Shifted 2 | 0.07 | `ekf` | 16.46 | 27.42 | 13.31 | +| Shifted 2 | 0.07 | `c2` | 3.77 | 5.11 | 3.67 | +| Outliers | 0.13 | `ctl-d1-q0.01` | 1.66 | 1.92 | 1.33 | +| Outliers | 0.13 | `search3` | 3.02 | 3.69 | 2.74 | +| Outliers | 0.13 | `true` | 1.70 | 1.93 | 1.34 | +| Outliers | 0.13 | `ref-full` | 1.64 | 1.74 | 1.55 | +| Outliers | 0.13 | `ref-d20` | 1.95 | 1.92 | 1.71 | +| Outliers | 0.13 | `imm` | 10.65 | 19.26 | 11.62 | +| Outliers | 0.13 | `ekf` | 13.50 | 24.51 | 11.88 | +| Outliers | 0.13 | `c2` | 9.51 | 11.73 | 7.43 | diff --git a/experiments/20261114-tl5/tracks.npz b/experiments/20261114-tl5/tracks.npz new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..c52e134c1ecf894075671d1f741a4d342d605edf GIT binary patch literal 92036 zcmY(KRZtvU@Z}TSC0Ov_1ef3z+&#EE!QI{6-JO}>5P}cx7QztREetM$3^44s_21p9 z?W(SRxi7zmd+Xd&r!|xjk=Wn8dx!R4)4aPBCt`a0KZW;>@SUgqcUvz`Hye-duGSnb zZvOAz;l1M$`tRs})$~8(-T8zFW`xGO7>o0g%~RaYVg!+leY(E}_01h$UT)v^pN90f9N+d*j_>=Jj+0vTIpog@ 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list[list[float]]: fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(7.6, 3.8)) cols = [grey, purple, orange, green] for i, (k, lab) in enumerate(have): - gs = sp[k]["gap_split"].get(CONTROL) + # under outliers the yardstick is the reference fitted to the edited bearings + gs = (sp[k].get("gap_split_edited") or sp[k]["gap_split"]).get(CONTROL) if not gs: continue xs = np.arange(len(THRESHOLDS)) + (i - (len(have) - 1) / 2) * 0.12 diff --git a/scripts/research/tl5_supplement.py b/scripts/research/tl5_supplement.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..3ec68a96 --- /dev/null +++ b/scripts/research/tl5_supplement.py @@ -0,0 +1,79 @@ +"""Spec 017: readings the README quotes that ``tables.md`` does not carry directly. + + uv run python scripts/research/tl5_supplement.py [--out supplement.md] + +From ``summary.json`` alone: each system's miss rate pooled over the detectability bands +under 20 and above 40 (the second half of the recommendation's logic reads the control's +rate above 40 on the shifted split), and the recommendation's two conditions. +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import argparse +import json +from pathlib import Path +from typing import Any + +SPLITS = [ + ("man2", "Annex B"), + ("shift", "Shifted"), + ("shift2", "Shifted 2"), + ("man2-out", "Outliers"), +] +CONTROL = "ctl-d1-q0.01" + + +def pooled(bands: dict[str, Any], system: str, names: tuple[str, ...]) -> tuple[float, int]: + n = sum(bands[b]["n"] for b in names) + missed = sum(bands[b][system]["rate"] * bands[b]["n"] for b in names) + return (missed / n if n else float("nan")), n + + +def text(summary: dict[str, Any]) -> str: + sp = summary["splits"] + out = [ + "## Manoeuvres missed, pooled over detectability bands (matched within 120 s)", + "", + "| Split | System | Under 20 (manoeuvres) | Above 40 (manoeuvres) |", + "| --- | --- | --- | --- |", + ] + for k, lab in SPLITS: + if k not in sp: + continue + bands = sp[k]["detectability"]["missed_by_band"] + for s in (CONTROL, "search3", "true", "c2"): + lo, nlo = pooled(bands, s, ("0-5", "5-10", "10-20")) + hi, nhi = pooled(bands, s, ("40-100", "100+")) + out += [f"| {lab} | `{s}` | {lo:.2f} ({nlo}) | {hi:.2f} ({nhi}) |"] + c = sp["shift"]["comparisons"][f"{CONTROL}_over_ref-d20"] + above, n = pooled(sp["shift"]["detectability"]["missed_by_band"], CONTROL, ("40-100", "100+")) + first, second = c["lo"] > 1.10, above > 1 / 3 + out += [ + "", + "## The recommendation's logic (decision record), shifted split", + "", + f"- E4 at threshold 20, control ÷ `ref-d20`: {c['geometric_mean']:.2f} " + f"[{c['lo']:.2f}, {c['hi']:.2f}]; lower limit above 1.10: **{'yes' if first else 'no'}**.", + f"- The control misses {above:.2f} of the {n} manoeuvres above 40; more than a third: " + f"**{'yes' if second else 'no'}**.", + f"- Both needed for a proposer study to be recommended: " + f"**{'recommended' if first and second else 'not recommended'}**.", + ] + return "\n".join(out) + "\n" + + +def main(argv: list[str] | None = None) -> int: + ap = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__) + ap.add_argument("dir") + ap.add_argument("--out") + a = ap.parse_args(argv) + t = text(json.loads((Path(a.dir) / "summary.json").read_text())) + if a.out: + Path(a.out).write_text(t) + else: + print(t, end="") + return 0 + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + raise SystemExit(main()) diff --git a/scripts/research/tl5_tracks.py b/scripts/research/tl5_tracks.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..1ae405e4 --- /dev/null +++ b/scripts/research/tl5_tracks.py @@ -0,0 +1,39 @@ +"""Spec 017: extract stored tracks of the first periods of a split from a results folder. + + uv run python scripts/research/tl5_tracks.py [--split shift] [--periods 20] + +Reads ``.errors.npz`` (the ``trk_*`` arrays the runner stores) and writes +``/tracks.npz`` with ``/period``, ``/truth`` and the tracks of +C″, the standing search, the declared control and the true-history reference for the +lowest ``--periods`` stored ordinals. Used by ``tl5_charts.py``. +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import argparse +from pathlib import Path + +import numpy as np + +KEEP = ("c2", "search3", "ctl-d1-q0.01", "history-best") + + +def main(argv: list[str] | None = None) -> int: + ap = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__) + ap.add_argument("results") + ap.add_argument("record") + ap.add_argument("--split", default="shift") + ap.add_argument("--periods", type=int, default=20) + a = ap.parse_args(argv) + z = np.load(Path(a.results) / f"{a.split}.errors.npz") + ids = np.unique(z["trk_period"])[: a.periods] + m = np.isin(z["trk_period"], ids) + out = {f"{a.split}/period": z["trk_period"][m], f"{a.split}/truth": z["trk_truth"][m]} + for k in KEEP: + out[f"{a.split}/{k}"] = z[f"trk_{k}"][m] + np.savez_compressed(Path(a.record) / "tracks.npz", **out) + return 0 + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + raise SystemExit(main()) From e4cf362ba4f60f94d77d3f64d622e0942c18003f Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Claude Date: Sat, 14 Nov 2026 20:15:58 +0000 Subject: [PATCH 2/5] Spec 017: figures for the slides post Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.2 Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_019erPajyAwQ6mBQ2Xz4xNHs --- .../2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/chain.svg | 438 ++++++ .../chain.svg.json | 9 + .../detectable.svg | 550 +++++++ .../detectable.svg.json | 9 + .../2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/missed.svg | 620 ++++++++ .../missed.svg.json | 9 + .../2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/share.svg | 537 +++++++ .../share.svg.json | 9 + .../2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/tracks.svg | 1292 +++++++++++++++++ .../tracks.svg.json | 10 + 10 files changed, 3483 insertions(+) create mode 100644 site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/chain.svg create mode 100644 site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/chain.svg.json create mode 100644 site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/detectable.svg create mode 100644 site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/detectable.svg.json create mode 100644 site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/missed.svg create mode 100644 site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/missed.svg.json create mode 100644 site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/share.svg create mode 100644 site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/share.svg.json create mode 100644 site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/tracks.svg create mode 100644 site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/tracks.svg.json diff --git a/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/chain.svg b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/chain.svg new file mode 100644 index 00000000..1a6f7093 --- /dev/null +++ b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/chain.svg @@ -0,0 +1,438 @@ + + + + + + + + 2026-11-14T20:15:54.543743 + image/svg+xml + + + Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + control ÷ + reference told + every manoeuvre + + + + + + + + + + + + + told only those + above 20 ÷ + told every one + + + + + + + + + + + + + control ÷ + told only those + above 20 + + + + + + + + + + + + + control ÷ + search under the + true prior + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + 1.0 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 1.2 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 1.4 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 1.6 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 1.8 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 2.0 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 2.2 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 2.4 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 2.6 + + + + paired ratio of period range error + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + 2.27 + + + 1.58 + + + 1.43 + + + 1.17 + + + Shifted prior: where the gap sits (seed 344) + + + + + + + + + + + + median per-period ratio + + + + + + + + + + diff --git a/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/chain.svg.json b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/chain.svg.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..b4382a52 --- /dev/null +++ b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/chain.svg.json @@ -0,0 +1,9 @@ +{ + "figure": "chain.svg", + "script": "scripts/research/tl5_charts.py", + "git_commit": "47ce0e53f85abdfe217f6f467b196b6c1bee38ce", + "git_dirty": true, + "inputs": { + "experiments/20261114-tl5/summary.json": "2b6a6da06da4efcba6f3aa943f1564cf3984bea4fbf47c0803e4c3c2623dc5a5" + } +} diff --git a/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/detectable.svg b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/detectable.svg new file mode 100644 index 00000000..dd966e3c --- /dev/null +++ b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/detectable.svg @@ -0,0 +1,550 @@ + + + + + + + + 2026-11-14T20:15:54.337314 + image/svg+xml + + + Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + Annex B + (516 manoeuvres) + + + + + + + + + + + + + shifted prior + (1475 manoeuvres) + + + + + + + + + + + + + shifted prior 2 + (228 manoeuvres) + + + + + + + + + + + + + outliers 2% + (248 manoeuvres) + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + 0.0 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 0.1 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 0.2 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 0.3 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 0.4 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 0.5 + + + + share of whole true manoeuvres + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + Manoeuvres whose omission adds little to the fit's χ² (seed 344) + + + + detectability + + + + + + under 10 + + + + + + under 20 + + + + + + under 40 + + + + + + + + + + diff --git a/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/detectable.svg.json b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/detectable.svg.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..4098464a --- /dev/null +++ b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/detectable.svg.json @@ -0,0 +1,9 @@ +{ + "figure": "detectable.svg", + "script": "scripts/research/tl5_charts.py", + "git_commit": "47ce0e53f85abdfe217f6f467b196b6c1bee38ce", + "git_dirty": true, + "inputs": { + "experiments/20261114-tl5/summary.json": "2b6a6da06da4efcba6f3aa943f1564cf3984bea4fbf47c0803e4c3c2623dc5a5" + } +} diff --git a/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/missed.svg b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/missed.svg new file mode 100644 index 00000000..a246eb11 --- /dev/null +++ b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/missed.svg @@ -0,0 +1,620 @@ + + + + + + + + 2026-11-14T20:15:54.443823 + image/svg+xml + + + Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + 0-5 + (304) + + + + + + + + + + + + + 5-10 + (112) + + + + + + + + + + + + + 10-20 + (126) + + + + + + + + + + + + + 20-40 + (151) + + + + + + + + + + + + + 40-100 + (208) + + + + + + + + + + + + + 100+ + (574) + + + + detectability of the manoeuvre (χ² its omission adds; count) + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + 0.0 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 0.2 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 0.4 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 0.6 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 0.8 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 1.0 + + + + share missed (matched within 120 s) + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + Shifted prior: manoeuvres missed, by detectability (seed 344) + + + + + + + + + + C″ as a track + + + + + + + + + standing search + + + + + + + + + classical control + + + + + + + + + search, true prior + + + + + + + + + + diff --git a/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/missed.svg.json b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/missed.svg.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..dd57d56d --- /dev/null +++ b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/missed.svg.json @@ -0,0 +1,9 @@ +{ + "figure": "missed.svg", + "script": "scripts/research/tl5_charts.py", + "git_commit": "47ce0e53f85abdfe217f6f467b196b6c1bee38ce", + "git_dirty": true, + "inputs": { + "experiments/20261114-tl5/summary.json": "2b6a6da06da4efcba6f3aa943f1564cf3984bea4fbf47c0803e4c3c2623dc5a5" + } +} diff --git a/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/share.svg b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/share.svg new file mode 100644 index 00000000..6dfa85b6 --- /dev/null +++ b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/share.svg @@ -0,0 +1,537 @@ + + + + + + + + 2026-11-14T20:15:54.640175 + image/svg+xml + + + Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + threshold 10 + + + + + + + + + + + + + threshold 20 + + + + + + + + + + + + + threshold 40 + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + −1.0 + + + + + + + + + + + + + −0.5 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 0.0 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 0.5 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 1.0 + + + + attainable share of the control's gap + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + The split depends on where 'detectable' is drawn (seed 344) + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + Annex B + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + shifted prior + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + shifted prior 2 + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + outliers 2% + + + + + + + + + + diff --git a/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/share.svg.json b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/share.svg.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..d64e099b --- /dev/null +++ b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/share.svg.json @@ -0,0 +1,9 @@ +{ + "figure": "share.svg", + "script": "scripts/research/tl5_charts.py", + "git_commit": "47ce0e53f85abdfe217f6f467b196b6c1bee38ce", + "git_dirty": true, + "inputs": { + "experiments/20261114-tl5/summary.json": "2b6a6da06da4efcba6f3aa943f1564cf3984bea4fbf47c0803e4c3c2623dc5a5" + } +} diff --git a/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/tracks.svg b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/tracks.svg new file mode 100644 index 00000000..26b91606 --- /dev/null +++ b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/tracks.svg @@ -0,0 +1,1292 @@ + + + + + + + + 2026-11-14T20:15:54.932628 + image/svg+xml + + + Matplotlib v3.11.2, https://matplotlib.org/ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + −10 + + + + + + + + + + + + + −8 + + + + + + + + + + + + + −6 + + + + + + + + + + + + + −4 + + + + + + + + + + + + + −2 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 0 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 2 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 4 + + + + east (km) + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + −4 + + + + + + + + + + + + + −2 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 0 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 2 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 4 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 6 + + + + north (km) + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + most manoeuvres under 20: period 4 + detectabilities 1, 4 + + + + + + + ownship + + + + + + target (truth) + + + + + + classical control + + + + + + true-history reference + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + −5 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 0 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 5 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 10 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 15 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 20 + + + + east (km) + + + + + + + + + + + + + + 2.5 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 5.0 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 7.5 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 10.0 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 12.5 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 15.0 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 17.5 + + + + + + + + + + + + + 20.0 + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + fewest manoeuvres under 20: period 9 + detectabilities 2433, 117 + + + + + + + + + + + + diff --git a/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/tracks.svg.json b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/tracks.svg.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..71d68b95 --- /dev/null +++ b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/tracks.svg.json @@ -0,0 +1,10 @@ +{ + "figure": "tracks.svg", + "script": "scripts/research/tl5_charts.py", + "git_commit": "47ce0e53f85abdfe217f6f467b196b6c1bee38ce", + "git_dirty": true, + "inputs": { + "experiments/20261114-tl5/tracks.npz": "bb8a396c641d5da0bf4798aa084571416e6f375da194dd73288afb18098f7607", + "experiments/20261114-tl5/shift.periods.json": "8eda6aeff26f4c048f39cfd31484370369b6eac1aff39acd282d6c92c9de3e5e" + } +} From ea1b96d3998b271ba5bfdaaaa6214596cbbb0999 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Claude Date: Sat, 14 Nov 2026 20:16:07 +0000 Subject: [PATCH 3/5] Spec 017: figures regenerated from a clean tree Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.2 Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_019erPajyAwQ6mBQ2Xz4xNHs --- .../2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/chain.svg | 124 +++---- .../chain.svg.json | 4 +- .../detectable.svg | 194 +++++------ .../detectable.svg.json | 4 +- .../2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/missed.svg | 304 +++++++++--------- .../missed.svg.json | 4 +- .../2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/share.svg | 212 ++++++------ .../share.svg.json | 4 +- .../2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/tracks.svg | 148 ++++----- .../tracks.svg.json | 4 +- 10 files changed, 501 insertions(+), 501 deletions(-) diff --git a/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/chain.svg b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/chain.svg index 1a6f7093..5aaf989d 100644 --- a/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/chain.svg +++ b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/chain.svg @@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ - 2026-11-14T20:15:54.543743 + 2026-11-14T20:16:07.143409 image/svg+xml @@ -42,16 +42,16 @@ z +" clip-path="url(#pb23f913ed4)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - - + @@ -64,11 +64,11 @@ L 0 3.5 +" clip-path="url(#pb23f913ed4)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -81,11 +81,11 @@ L 227.529264 26.4875 +" clip-path="url(#pb23f913ed4)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -98,11 +98,11 @@ L 346.325701 26.4875 +" clip-path="url(#pb23f913ed4)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -117,16 +117,16 @@ L 465.122138 26.4875 +" clip-path="url(#pb23f913ed4)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - - + @@ -137,11 +137,11 @@ L -3.5 0 +" clip-path="url(#pb23f913ed4)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -152,11 +152,11 @@ L 536.4 201.875847 +" clip-path="url(#pb23f913ed4)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -167,11 +167,11 @@ L 536.4 177.218329 +" clip-path="url(#pb23f913ed4)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -182,11 +182,11 @@ L 536.4 152.560811 +" clip-path="url(#pb23f913ed4)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -197,11 +197,11 @@ L 536.4 127.903294 +" clip-path="url(#pb23f913ed4)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -212,11 +212,11 @@ L 536.4 103.245776 +" clip-path="url(#pb23f913ed4)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -227,11 +227,11 @@ L 536.4 78.588258 +" clip-path="url(#pb23f913ed4)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -242,11 +242,11 @@ L 536.4 53.93074 +" clip-path="url(#pb23f913ed4)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -260,65 +260,65 @@ L 536.4 29.273222 +" clip-path="url(#pb23f913ed4)" style="fill: none; stroke: #7b4fa3; stroke-width: 1.5"/> +" clip-path="url(#pb23f913ed4)" style="fill: none; stroke: #4c4c4c; stroke-width: 1.5; stroke-linecap: square"/> - - - + + +" clip-path="url(#pb23f913ed4)" style="fill: none; stroke: #6c757d; stroke-width: 1.5"/> - - +" clip-path="url(#pb23f913ed4)" style="fill: none; stroke: #4c4c4c; stroke-width: 1.5; stroke-linecap: square"/> + + +" clip-path="url(#pb23f913ed4)" style="fill: none; stroke: #e9a23b; stroke-width: 1.5"/> - - +" clip-path="url(#pb23f913ed4)" style="fill: none; stroke: #4c4c4c; stroke-width: 1.5; stroke-linecap: square"/> + + +" clip-path="url(#pb23f913ed4)" style="fill: none; stroke: #2a9d8f; stroke-width: 1.5"/> - - +" clip-path="url(#pb23f913ed4)" style="fill: none; stroke: #4c4c4c; stroke-width: 1.5; stroke-linecap: square"/> + + +" clip-path="url(#pb23f913ed4)" style="fill: none; stroke-dasharray: 2.96,1.28; stroke-dashoffset: 0; stroke: #808080; stroke-width: 0.8"/> - - - + + - - - + + - - - + + - - - + + @@ -416,12 +416,12 @@ L 536.4 233.960938 - - + @@ -431,7 +431,7 @@ L -5 -0 - + diff --git a/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/chain.svg.json b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/chain.svg.json index b4382a52..4525458c 100644 --- a/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/chain.svg.json +++ b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/chain.svg.json @@ -1,8 +1,8 @@ { "figure": "chain.svg", "script": "scripts/research/tl5_charts.py", - "git_commit": "47ce0e53f85abdfe217f6f467b196b6c1bee38ce", - "git_dirty": true, + "git_commit": "e4cf362ba4f60f94d77d3f64d622e0942c18003f", + "git_dirty": false, "inputs": { "experiments/20261114-tl5/summary.json": "2b6a6da06da4efcba6f3aa943f1564cf3984bea4fbf47c0803e4c3c2623dc5a5" } diff --git a/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/detectable.svg b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/detectable.svg index dd966e3c..ae6655e5 100644 --- a/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/detectable.svg +++ b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/detectable.svg @@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ - 2026-11-14T20:15:54.337314 + 2026-11-14T20:16:06.928199 image/svg+xml @@ -43,7 +43,7 @@ L 100.181973 236.440625 L 100.181973 194.978593 L 71.430991 194.978593 z -" clip-path="url(#p6c5e85f09b)" style="fill: #d9c9ea"/> +" clip-path="url(#p384b4cfce8)" style="fill: #d9c9ea"/> +" clip-path="url(#p384b4cfce8)" style="fill: #d9c9ea"/> +" clip-path="url(#p384b4cfce8)" style="fill: #d9c9ea"/> +" clip-path="url(#p384b4cfce8)" style="fill: #d9c9ea"/> +" clip-path="url(#p384b4cfce8)" style="fill: #b9a3d0"/> +" clip-path="url(#p384b4cfce8)" style="fill: #b9a3d0"/> +" clip-path="url(#p384b4cfce8)" style="fill: #b9a3d0"/> +" clip-path="url(#p384b4cfce8)" style="fill: #b9a3d0"/> +" clip-path="url(#p384b4cfce8)" style="fill: #7b4fa3"/> +" clip-path="url(#p384b4cfce8)" style="fill: #7b4fa3"/> +" clip-path="url(#p384b4cfce8)" style="fill: #7b4fa3"/> +" clip-path="url(#p384b4cfce8)" style="fill: #7b4fa3"/> +" clip-path="url(#p384b4cfce8)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - - + @@ -159,11 +159,11 @@ L 0 3.5 +" clip-path="url(#p384b4cfce8)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -175,11 +175,11 @@ L 234.249053 26.4875 +" clip-path="url(#p384b4cfce8)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -191,11 +191,11 @@ L 351.440556 26.4875 +" clip-path="url(#p384b4cfce8)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -209,16 +209,16 @@ L 468.63206 26.4875 +" clip-path="url(#p384b4cfce8)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - - + @@ -229,11 +229,11 @@ L -3.5 0 +" clip-path="url(#p384b4cfce8)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -244,11 +244,11 @@ L 536.4 196.073816 +" clip-path="url(#p384b4cfce8)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -259,11 +259,11 @@ L 536.4 155.707007 +" clip-path="url(#p384b4cfce8)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -274,11 +274,11 @@ L 536.4 115.340198 +" clip-path="url(#p384b4cfce8)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -289,11 +289,11 @@ L 536.4 74.97339 +" clip-path="url(#p384b4cfce8)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -307,186 +307,186 @@ L 536.4 34.606581 +" clip-path="url(#p384b4cfce8)" style="fill: none; stroke: #000000; stroke-width: 0.8"/> - - - + + - - + + +" clip-path="url(#p384b4cfce8)" style="fill: none; stroke: #000000; stroke-width: 0.8"/> - - + + - - + + +" clip-path="url(#p384b4cfce8)" style="fill: none; stroke: #000000; stroke-width: 0.8"/> - - + + - - + + +" clip-path="url(#p384b4cfce8)" style="fill: none; stroke: #000000; stroke-width: 0.8"/> - - + + - - + + +" clip-path="url(#p384b4cfce8)" style="fill: none; stroke: #000000; stroke-width: 0.8"/> - - + + - - + + +" clip-path="url(#p384b4cfce8)" style="fill: none; stroke: #000000; stroke-width: 0.8"/> - - + + - - + + +" clip-path="url(#p384b4cfce8)" style="fill: none; stroke: #000000; stroke-width: 0.8"/> - - + + - - + + +" clip-path="url(#p384b4cfce8)" style="fill: none; stroke: #000000; stroke-width: 0.8"/> - - + + - - + + +" clip-path="url(#p384b4cfce8)" style="fill: none; stroke: #000000; stroke-width: 0.8"/> - - + + - - + + +" clip-path="url(#p384b4cfce8)" style="fill: none; stroke: #000000; stroke-width: 0.8"/> - - + + - - + + +" clip-path="url(#p384b4cfce8)" style="fill: none; stroke: #000000; stroke-width: 0.8"/> - - + + - - + + +" clip-path="url(#p384b4cfce8)" style="fill: none; stroke: #000000; stroke-width: 0.8"/> - - + + - - + + @@ -543,7 +543,7 @@ z - + diff --git a/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/detectable.svg.json b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/detectable.svg.json index 4098464a..17452669 100644 --- a/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/detectable.svg.json +++ b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/detectable.svg.json @@ -1,8 +1,8 @@ { "figure": "detectable.svg", "script": "scripts/research/tl5_charts.py", - "git_commit": "47ce0e53f85abdfe217f6f467b196b6c1bee38ce", - "git_dirty": true, + "git_commit": "e4cf362ba4f60f94d77d3f64d622e0942c18003f", + "git_dirty": false, "inputs": { "experiments/20261114-tl5/summary.json": "2b6a6da06da4efcba6f3aa943f1564cf3984bea4fbf47c0803e4c3c2623dc5a5" } diff --git a/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/missed.svg b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/missed.svg index a246eb11..6758ad8c 100644 --- a/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/missed.svg +++ b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/missed.svg @@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ - 2026-11-14T20:15:54.443823 + 2026-11-14T20:16:07.035602 image/svg+xml @@ -42,16 +42,16 @@ z +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - - + @@ -63,11 +63,11 @@ L 0 3.5 +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -79,11 +79,11 @@ L 159.996516 26.4875 +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -95,11 +95,11 @@ L 248.562042 26.4875 +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -111,11 +111,11 @@ L 337.127567 26.4875 +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -127,11 +127,11 @@ L 425.693093 26.4875 +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -148,16 +148,16 @@ L 514.258619 26.4875 +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - - + @@ -168,11 +168,11 @@ L -3.5 0 +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -183,11 +183,11 @@ L 536.4 183.416536 +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -198,11 +198,11 @@ L 536.4 146.492057 +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -213,11 +213,11 @@ L 536.4 109.567578 +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -228,11 +228,11 @@ L 536.4 72.643099 +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -246,184 +246,184 @@ L 536.4 35.71862 +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #6c757d; stroke-width: 1.2"/> +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #6c757d; stroke-width: 1.2"/> +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #6c757d; stroke-width: 1.2"/> +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #6c757d; stroke-width: 1.2"/> +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #6c757d; stroke-width: 1.2"/> +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #6c757d; stroke-width: 1.2"/> - - - - - - - - + + + + + + + - - - - - - - + + + + + + + +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b9a3d0; stroke-width: 1.2"/> +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b9a3d0; stroke-width: 1.2"/> +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b9a3d0; stroke-width: 1.2"/> +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b9a3d0; stroke-width: 1.2"/> +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b9a3d0; stroke-width: 1.2"/> +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b9a3d0; stroke-width: 1.2"/> - - - - - - - - + + + + + + + - - - - - - - + + + + + + + +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #7b4fa3; stroke-width: 1.2"/> +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #7b4fa3; stroke-width: 1.2"/> +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #7b4fa3; stroke-width: 1.2"/> +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #7b4fa3; stroke-width: 1.2"/> +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #7b4fa3; stroke-width: 1.2"/> +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #7b4fa3; stroke-width: 1.2"/> - - - - - - - - + + + + + + + - - - - - - - + + + + + + + +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #2a9d8f; stroke-width: 1.2"/> +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #2a9d8f; stroke-width: 1.2"/> +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #2a9d8f; stroke-width: 1.2"/> +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #2a9d8f; stroke-width: 1.2"/> +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #2a9d8f; stroke-width: 1.2"/> +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #2a9d8f; stroke-width: 1.2"/> - - - - - - - - + + + + + + + - - - - - - - + + + + + + + @@ -434,9 +434,9 @@ L 248.562042 60.627991 L 337.127567 76.066561 L 425.693093 98.738765 L 514.258619 142.182057 -" clip-path="url(#p82fab2093f)" style="fill: none; stroke: #6c757d; stroke-width: 1.2; stroke-linecap: square"/> +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #6c757d; stroke-width: 1.2; stroke-linecap: square"/> - - - - - - - - + + + + + + + @@ -464,9 +464,9 @@ L 248.562042 116.307761 L 337.127567 148.203788 L 425.693093 164.421732 L 514.258619 197.182806 -" clip-path="url(#p82fab2093f)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b9a3d0; stroke-width: 1.2; stroke-linecap: square"/> +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b9a3d0; stroke-width: 1.2; stroke-linecap: square"/> - - - - - - - - + + + + + + + @@ -494,9 +494,9 @@ L 248.562042 119.238275 L 337.127567 154.317112 L 425.693093 165.30934 L 514.258619 195.896238 -" clip-path="url(#p82fab2093f)" style="fill: none; stroke: #7b4fa3; stroke-width: 1.2; stroke-linecap: square"/> +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #7b4fa3; stroke-width: 1.2; stroke-linecap: square"/> - - - - - - - - + + + + + + + @@ -524,9 +524,9 @@ L 248.562042 145.612903 L 337.127567 165.321096 L 425.693093 180.39867 L 514.258619 204.580567 -" clip-path="url(#p82fab2093f)" style="fill: none; stroke: #2a9d8f; stroke-width: 1.2; stroke-linecap: square"/> +" clip-path="url(#p9cdaa40177)" style="fill: none; stroke: #2a9d8f; stroke-width: 1.2; stroke-linecap: square"/> - - - - - - - - + + + + + + + @@ -567,7 +567,7 @@ L 449.555 38.6375 L 457.555 38.6375 " style="fill: none; stroke: #6c757d; stroke-width: 1.5; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -579,7 +579,7 @@ L 449.555 52.317187 L 457.555 52.317187 " style="fill: none; stroke: #b9a3d0; stroke-width: 1.5; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -591,7 +591,7 @@ L 449.555 65.996875 L 457.555 65.996875 " style="fill: none; stroke: #7b4fa3; stroke-width: 1.5; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -603,7 +603,7 @@ L 449.555 79.676562 L 457.555 79.676562 " style="fill: none; stroke: #2a9d8f; stroke-width: 1.5; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -613,7 +613,7 @@ L 457.555 79.676562 - + diff --git a/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/missed.svg.json b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/missed.svg.json index dd57d56d..9d59a987 100644 --- a/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/missed.svg.json +++ b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/missed.svg.json @@ -1,8 +1,8 @@ { "figure": "missed.svg", "script": "scripts/research/tl5_charts.py", - "git_commit": "47ce0e53f85abdfe217f6f467b196b6c1bee38ce", - "git_dirty": true, + "git_commit": "e4cf362ba4f60f94d77d3f64d622e0942c18003f", + "git_dirty": false, "inputs": { "experiments/20261114-tl5/summary.json": "2b6a6da06da4efcba6f3aa943f1564cf3984bea4fbf47c0803e4c3c2623dc5a5" } diff --git a/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/share.svg b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/share.svg index 6dfa85b6..575b25b0 100644 --- a/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/share.svg +++ b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/share.svg @@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ - 2026-11-14T20:15:54.640175 + 2026-11-14T20:16:07.253523 image/svg+xml @@ -42,16 +42,16 @@ z +" clip-path="url(#p9f6044140d)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - - + @@ -62,11 +62,11 @@ L 0 3.5 +" clip-path="url(#p9f6044140d)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -77,11 +77,11 @@ L 295.88793 26.4875 +" clip-path="url(#p9f6044140d)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -94,16 +94,16 @@ L 481.182283 26.4875 +" clip-path="url(#p9f6044140d)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - - + @@ -114,11 +114,11 @@ L -3.5 0 +" clip-path="url(#p9f6044140d)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -129,11 +129,11 @@ L 536.4 196.480197 +" clip-path="url(#p9f6044140d)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -144,11 +144,11 @@ L 536.4 149.260003 +" clip-path="url(#p9f6044140d)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -159,11 +159,11 @@ L 536.4 102.03981 +" clip-path="url(#p9f6044140d)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -177,140 +177,140 @@ L 536.4 54.819616 +" clip-path="url(#p9f6044140d)" style="fill: none; stroke: #6c757d"/> +" clip-path="url(#p9f6044140d)" style="fill: none; stroke: #6c757d"/> +" clip-path="url(#p9f6044140d)" style="fill: none; stroke: #6c757d"/> - - - - - + + + + - - - - + + + + +" clip-path="url(#p9f6044140d)" style="fill: none; stroke: #7b4fa3"/> +" clip-path="url(#p9f6044140d)" style="fill: none; stroke: #7b4fa3"/> +" clip-path="url(#p9f6044140d)" style="fill: none; stroke: #7b4fa3"/> - - - - - + + + + - - - - + + + + +" clip-path="url(#p9f6044140d)" style="fill: none; stroke: #e9a23b"/> +" clip-path="url(#p9f6044140d)" style="fill: none; stroke: #e9a23b"/> +" clip-path="url(#p9f6044140d)" style="fill: none; stroke: #e9a23b"/> - - - - - + + + + - - - - + + + + +" clip-path="url(#p9f6044140d)" style="fill: none; stroke: #2a9d8f"/> +" clip-path="url(#p9f6044140d)" style="fill: none; stroke: #2a9d8f"/> +" clip-path="url(#p9f6044140d)" style="fill: none; stroke: #2a9d8f"/> - - - - - + + + + - - - - + + + + +" clip-path="url(#p9f6044140d)" style="fill: none; stroke-dasharray: 2.96,1.28; stroke-dashoffset: 0; stroke: #808080; stroke-width: 0.8"/> +" clip-path="url(#p9f6044140d)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b2b2b2; stroke-width: 0.6; stroke-linecap: square"/> +" clip-path="url(#p9f6044140d)" style="fill: none; stroke: #6c757d; stroke-linecap: square"/> - - - - - + + + + +" clip-path="url(#p9f6044140d)" style="fill: none; stroke: #7b4fa3; stroke-linecap: square"/> - - - - - + + + + +" clip-path="url(#p9f6044140d)" style="fill: none; stroke: #e9a23b; stroke-linecap: square"/> - - - - - + + + + +" clip-path="url(#p9f6044140d)" style="fill: none; stroke: #2a9d8f; stroke-linecap: square"/> - - - - - + + + + @@ -421,12 +421,12 @@ L 70.575859 186.731641 - + - + @@ -436,7 +436,7 @@ L 78.575859 190.731641 - + @@ -449,12 +449,12 @@ L 70.575859 200.411328 - + - + @@ -464,7 +464,7 @@ L 78.575859 204.411328 - + @@ -477,12 +477,12 @@ L 70.575859 214.091016 - + - + @@ -492,7 +492,7 @@ L 78.575859 218.091016 - + @@ -505,12 +505,12 @@ L 70.575859 227.770703 - + - + @@ -520,7 +520,7 @@ L 78.575859 231.770703 - + @@ -530,7 +530,7 @@ L 78.575859 231.770703 - + diff --git a/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/share.svg.json b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/share.svg.json index d64e099b..ed82cc2f 100644 --- a/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/share.svg.json +++ b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/share.svg.json @@ -1,8 +1,8 @@ { "figure": "share.svg", "script": "scripts/research/tl5_charts.py", - "git_commit": "47ce0e53f85abdfe217f6f467b196b6c1bee38ce", - "git_dirty": true, + "git_commit": "e4cf362ba4f60f94d77d3f64d622e0942c18003f", + "git_dirty": false, "inputs": { "experiments/20261114-tl5/summary.json": "2b6a6da06da4efcba6f3aa943f1564cf3984bea4fbf47c0803e4c3c2623dc5a5" } diff --git a/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/tracks.svg b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/tracks.svg index 26b91606..8eeaa439 100644 --- a/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/tracks.svg +++ b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/tracks.svg @@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ - 2026-11-14T20:15:54.932628 + 2026-11-14T20:16:07.478016 image/svg+xml @@ -42,16 +42,16 @@ z +" clip-path="url(#p92c4a36937)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - - + @@ -62,11 +62,11 @@ L 0 3.5 +" clip-path="url(#p92c4a36937)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -77,11 +77,11 @@ L 107.341201 34.229688 +" clip-path="url(#p92c4a36937)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -92,11 +92,11 @@ L 146.160817 34.229688 +" clip-path="url(#p92c4a36937)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -107,11 +107,11 @@ L 184.980432 34.229688 +" clip-path="url(#p92c4a36937)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -122,11 +122,11 @@ L 223.800048 34.229688 +" clip-path="url(#p92c4a36937)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -137,11 +137,11 @@ L 262.619664 34.229688 +" clip-path="url(#p92c4a36937)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -152,11 +152,11 @@ L 301.439279 34.229688 +" clip-path="url(#p92c4a36937)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -172,16 +172,16 @@ L 340.258895 34.229688 +" clip-path="url(#p92c4a36937)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - - + @@ -192,11 +192,11 @@ L -3.5 0 +" clip-path="url(#p92c4a36937)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -207,11 +207,11 @@ L 344.244805 200.928845 +" clip-path="url(#p92c4a36937)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -222,11 +222,11 @@ L 344.244805 162.109229 +" clip-path="url(#p92c4a36937)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -237,11 +237,11 @@ L 344.244805 123.289614 +" clip-path="url(#p92c4a36937)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -252,11 +252,11 @@ L 344.244805 84.469998 +" clip-path="url(#p92c4a36937)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -332,7 +332,7 @@ L 269.932041 64.676951 L 269.707189 66.551533 L 268.33262 67.841508 L 266.44017 68.127338 -" clip-path="url(#p007b98394a)" style="fill: none; stroke: #1f77b4; stroke-width: 1.4; stroke-linecap: square"/> +" clip-path="url(#p92c4a36937)" style="fill: none; stroke: #1f77b4; stroke-width: 1.4; stroke-linecap: square"/> +" clip-path="url(#p92c4a36937)" style="fill: none; stroke: #d62728; stroke-width: 1.6; stroke-linecap: square"/> - - - + + @@ -484,7 +484,7 @@ L 127.869082 209.904606 L 127.440958 209.203939 L 127.012842 208.503271 L 126.584727 207.802604 -" clip-path="url(#p007b98394a)" style="fill: none; stroke: #7b4fa3; stroke-width: 1.1; stroke-linecap: square"/> +" clip-path="url(#p92c4a36937)" style="fill: none; stroke: #7b4fa3; stroke-width: 1.1; stroke-linecap: square"/> +" clip-path="url(#p92c4a36937)" style="fill: none; stroke-dasharray: 4.07,1.76; stroke-dashoffset: 0; stroke: #2a9d8f; stroke-width: 1.1"/> +" clip-path="url(#pf5b0e6217b)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -635,11 +635,11 @@ L 418.199556 34.229688 +" clip-path="url(#pf5b0e6217b)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -650,11 +650,11 @@ L 470.224726 34.229688 +" clip-path="url(#pf5b0e6217b)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -665,11 +665,11 @@ L 522.249895 34.229688 +" clip-path="url(#pf5b0e6217b)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -680,11 +680,11 @@ L 574.275064 34.229688 +" clip-path="url(#pf5b0e6217b)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -695,11 +695,11 @@ L 626.300234 34.229688 +" clip-path="url(#pf5b0e6217b)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -715,11 +715,11 @@ L 678.325403 34.229688 +" clip-path="url(#pf5b0e6217b)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -730,11 +730,11 @@ L 680.4 230.445734 +" clip-path="url(#pf5b0e6217b)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -745,11 +745,11 @@ L 680.4 204.43315 +" clip-path="url(#pf5b0e6217b)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -760,11 +760,11 @@ L 680.4 178.420565 +" clip-path="url(#pf5b0e6217b)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -775,11 +775,11 @@ L 680.4 152.40798 +" clip-path="url(#pf5b0e6217b)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -790,11 +790,11 @@ L 680.4 126.395396 +" clip-path="url(#pf5b0e6217b)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -805,11 +805,11 @@ L 680.4 100.382811 +" clip-path="url(#pf5b0e6217b)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -820,11 +820,11 @@ L 680.4 74.370226 +" clip-path="url(#pf5b0e6217b)" style="fill: none; stroke: #b0b0b0; stroke-opacity: 0.25; stroke-width: 0.8; stroke-linecap: square"/> - + @@ -937,7 +937,7 @@ L 482.765471 112.768226 L 481.608502 112.092345 L 480.708634 111.113602 L 480.309563 109.845366 -" clip-path="url(#p4469a164b4)" style="fill: none; stroke: #1f77b4; stroke-width: 1.4; stroke-linecap: square"/> +" clip-path="url(#pf5b0e6217b)" style="fill: none; stroke: #1f77b4; stroke-width: 1.4; stroke-linecap: square"/> +" clip-path="url(#pf5b0e6217b)" style="fill: none; stroke: #d62728; stroke-width: 1.6; stroke-linecap: square"/> - - + + @@ -1156,7 +1156,7 @@ L 461.685839 49.157325 L 459.51956 47.547675 L 457.353281 45.938024 L 455.187003 44.328374 -" clip-path="url(#p4469a164b4)" style="fill: none; stroke: #7b4fa3; stroke-width: 1.1; stroke-linecap: square"/> +" clip-path="url(#pf5b0e6217b)" style="fill: none; stroke: #7b4fa3; stroke-width: 1.1; stroke-linecap: square"/> +" clip-path="url(#pf5b0e6217b)" style="fill: none; stroke-dasharray: 4.07,1.76; stroke-dashoffset: 0; stroke: #2a9d8f; stroke-width: 1.1"/> + - + diff --git a/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/tracks.svg.json b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/tracks.svg.json index 71d68b95..907281fe 100644 --- a/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/tracks.svg.json +++ b/site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/tracks.svg.json @@ -1,8 +1,8 @@ { "figure": "tracks.svg", "script": "scripts/research/tl5_charts.py", - "git_commit": "47ce0e53f85abdfe217f6f467b196b6c1bee38ce", - "git_dirty": true, + "git_commit": "e4cf362ba4f60f94d77d3f64d622e0942c18003f", + "git_dirty": false, "inputs": { "experiments/20261114-tl5/tracks.npz": "bb8a396c641d5da0bf4798aa084571416e6f375da194dd73288afb18098f7607", "experiments/20261114-tl5/shift.periods.json": "8eda6aeff26f4c048f39cfd31484370369b6eac1aff39acd282d6c92c9de3e5e" From 08e5404b87c70906013829c4dd1558148f3b80aa Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Claude Date: Sat, 14 Nov 2026 20:29:36 +0000 Subject: [PATCH 4/5] Spec 017: panel review round 1 (five approve with findings) and the record's corrections Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.2 Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_019erPajyAwQ6mBQ2Xz4xNHs --- experiments/20261114-tl5/README.md | 37 +++++++++ experiments/20261114-tl5/review.md | 129 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ specs/017-shifted-gap/tasks.md | 8 +- 3 files changed, 170 insertions(+), 4 deletions(-) create mode 100644 experiments/20261114-tl5/review.md diff --git a/experiments/20261114-tl5/README.md b/experiments/20261114-tl5/README.md index e6cab847..4ccd0afb 100644 --- a/experiments/20261114-tl5/README.md +++ b/experiments/20261114-tl5/README.md @@ -8,6 +8,11 @@ below are copied from them. Per-row errors: results branch `results/timelate-tl-f-test-43618868241`. `tracks.npz` (`tl5_tracks.py`) holds the first 20 shifted periods' tracks for the slides. +**Decided by the panel, round 1 (`review.md`): five approve with findings.** Every number +below reproduces and the logic's output stands, but the panel changed what it means; read +"After the panel" at the end before quoting anything from the sections above it. Sentences +the panel found wrong are struck through there, not silently edited here. + A registered study, not a gate: no pass or fail. The decision record (`experiments/20261114-tl5-decision/`) fixed five estimands and the logic of the recommendation before seeds 343 and 344 existed. @@ -100,3 +105,35 @@ owner decides. - Detectability with times free, or jointly over pairs of manoeuvres. - A smoothed IMM (the filters are scored as they are). - Unit tests for `run4`/`study4` beyond those added in this spec's `test_timelate5.py`. + +## After the panel (round 1, 2026-11-14) + +Corrections to this record; the evidence is in `review.md`. + +- **"Part identifiability and part attainable" is two kinds of period.** Where a manoeuvre + is under 20 (336 periods) the control is 1.16 [1.04, 1.30] times the reference not told + it; where none is (115 periods) it is 2.65 times the full reference. The attainable part + is the under-a-third of periods where the control misses a manoeuvre the bearings show + (E4 2.73 there, 1.09 elsewhere). The share at 20 is 0.70 in the tight third of periods + by bound and 0.20 in the loose third. +- **E4 is not an upper limit and E3 is not a lower limit.** The references are flattered + by held true times (the control is 1.6 to 1.7 times `ref-full` even with the right + history) and handicapped by hard omission (the control beats `ref-d20` in 37% of + periods); detectability is not additive (jointly omitted "undetectable" manoeuvres cost + 20 or more in 44% of 39 periods checked). +- **The recommendation is the rule's output, not the evidence's.** The second condition + counts manoeuvres at a 120 s match (0.18; 0.30 at 60 s, 0.11 at 240 s), while the cost + sits in the 100 periods with a miss above 40 (E4 3.08, 69% of the log sum). +- **Wrong as written:** "the tuning seed differed from it by more than its intervals" (the + test's values lie inside the tuning intervals; about 1 standard error); "IMM ÷ control + 4.8 to 16; EKF 5.6 to 22" (on 40% of periods; on common rows 3.75 to 10.5 and 4.1 to + 9.6); "the same miss curve by band" on Annex B (below 40 only); "half-way point between + 10 and 40" (near 20); shifted 2 "mostly attainable" (one clipped reference, 19 + manoeuvres). +- **Added:** of the 138 missed manoeuvres above 40 the true-prior search finds 66; E5 is + 2.58 where it finds more and 1.07 elsewhere. The attainable part looks at least half a + prior problem. +- **Not delivered, added:** the split under each way of fitting the reference; course and + speed in the estimands (attainable share 0.55 and 0.48 by the panel's recomputation); + a joint detectability; unit tests for `detect.py` and `run5.py`; period counts in the + paired tables. diff --git a/experiments/20261114-tl5/review.md b/experiments/20261114-tl5/review.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..c864ad41 --- /dev/null +++ b/experiments/20261114-tl5/review.md @@ -0,0 +1,129 @@ +# Spec 017: panel review, round 1 (2026-11-14) + +Five independent reviewers (numbers and provenance; the measure itself; statistics; code; +scope and conclusions) read the spec, the decision record, the tuning, validation and test +records and the code, and recomputed from the per-row errors (results branch +`results/timelate-tl-f-test-43618868241`) and the period files. **All five: approve with +findings. Decided in one round.** Every registered number reproduces, the registration held +and the logic's output, "a proposer study is not recommended", is correctly computed. What +the record *means* is changed in four ways, and the README is corrected. + +Figures here that are not in the generated files are the reviewers' recomputations from +the test's per-row errors and period files. They are not registered results. + +## Checked and found sound + +- E3, E4, E5, the whole gap and the attainable shares recompute to the reported digits + with independent code; a different bootstrap seed moves limits by 0.01 at most; a 2.5% + and a 10% trim leave E4 at 20 at 1.43 and 1.40 and E5 at 1.17 and 1.13; sign tests + p = 4e-7 (E4 at 20) and 0.016 (E5). +- Detectability shares, miss rates by band and the pooled rate above 40 (138 of 782, + 0.176, Wilson [0.15, 0.21]) recompute from `shift.periods.json`. +- All 18 digests in `decision.json` match the files at registration (b8c0455), at the + test's commit (6c1f3f9) and at HEAD; no file under `src/` or `configs/` changed between + them; the code digests in every split's summary are the registered ones. +- Order: tuning 14:25; registration committed 16:02:43; validation run 16:02:50, recorded + 17:02:05; one test run, attempt 1, 17:02:11. +- `tables.md` and `supplement.md` regenerate byte for byte; the record's files equal the + results branch's. +- Spans, the cost's units, one-to-one matching, the true prior's construction, the edited + references' bearings, the empty-history path: read and found correct. Removing cut + manoeuvres from the pairing changes no rate. + +## Findings that change the reading + +**1. The pooled gap is two kinds of period, not a division within periods** (four +reviewers). On the shifted split at threshold 20: + +| Periods | n | Control ÷ `ref-d20` | +| --- | --- | --- | +| Some whole manoeuvre under 20 (the reference is denied it) | 336 | 1.16 [1.04, 1.30], median 1.06; attainable share 0.19 [0.05, 0.34] | +| Nothing under 20 (`ref-d20` is `ref-full`) | 115 | 2.65 [2.12, 3.32] | +| The control misses at least one manoeuvre above 20 | 134 | 2.73, median 2.67; 83% of E4's log sum | +| The control finds them all | 317 | 1.09, median 1.00 | + +Where a manoeuvre is hidden, the control is close to the reference that is not told it: +there the limit is identifiability. The attainable part sits in under a third of periods, +where the control misses a manoeuvre the bearings show. "0.44 attainable" averages the +two. By how tight the bound is, the share at 20 is 0.70 [0.56, 0.82] in the tight third of +periods, 0.28 in the middle and 0.20 [-0.08, 0.44] in the loose third. For course and +speed the attainable share is larger than for range (0.55 and 0.48; E4 1.75 and 1.50). + +**2. The logic's second condition measured the wrong thing, and depends on the matching +tolerance.** It counts manoeuvres; the cost is per period. The control misses a manoeuvre +above 40 in 100 of 451 periods, where E4 is 3.08 [2.36, 4.03] and which carry 69% of E4's +log sum. The pooled miss rate above 40 is 0.30 at 60 s (interval [0.27, 0.34], reaching a +third), 0.18 at the registered 120 s and 0.11 at 240 s. The "no" is the rule's output at +the registered tolerance; **it follows from the rule and not from the evidence**, and with +a tuning value of 0.18 the condition could hardly have fired. + +**3. The attainable part looks at least half a prior problem, not a search problem.** Of +the 138 missed manoeuvres above 40, the same search under the targets' own prior finds 66. +E5 is 2.58 [1.89, 3.58] in the 46 periods where it finds more of them and 1.07 elsewhere. +In 85 of 103 periods with such a miss the control declares fewer manoeuvres than the +truth. A proposer feeding the same evidence would mostly be vetoed by it. The next step +this points to is a prior that adapts to the period, classical and on CPU, with the +true-prior search (1.17) as its ceiling. + +**4. The detectability measure and its references are not bounds.** +- *Not additive.* On 39 test periods with two or more manoeuvres under 20, omitting them + together costs 20 or more in 44% and 40 or more in 18% (one period: singles 18, 0.2 and + 2; together 2,481). `ref-d20` is denied sets the bearings show plainly, and those + periods carry about two thirds of E3. E1's "can barely be seen" and E3 are biased + upward; **E3 is not "a lower limit on identifiability"**. +- *Flattered and handicapped at once.* Where every manoeuvre is above 20 and the control's + history is right (about 80 to 100 periods), the control is still 1.6 to 1.7 times + `ref-full`: that is the held true times and kinds, not detection. And the control beats + `ref-d20` in 37% of periods and `ref-d40` in 44%. **E4 is not "an upper limit on what a + perfect detector could gain"**; brought to the level of the matched periods, the gain + would be nearer 1.10 than 1.43. +- "Not separated from the reference at 40" holds because that reference is forbidden the + manoeuvres between 20 and 40, of which the control finds 64%. +- The thresholds are priced by Annex B's evidence: the true-prior search misses 0.56 + between 5 and 10 against the control's 0.79, so "undetectable at 20" is partly + "unaffordable under the wrong prior". +- The references on the shifted splits are fitted under Annex B's prior. + +## Corrections to the first record + +- **"The tuning seed differed by more than its intervals" was wrong.** The test's values + (1.43, 1.17) lie inside the tuning intervals ([0.96, 1.59], [0.86, 1.22]); the + differences are about 1 and 1.3 standard errors. The forecast failed because a point + estimate from 134 periods was read as fact; scaled to the test's size, E4's lower limit + was near 1.08, so the first condition was close to even at registration. +- **The filter ratios were on a selected minority of periods.** IMM and EKF have no state + before the zig; a period over half before it is dropped (264 and 268 of 451 shifted + periods), and the rest compare an upper quantile with the control's median. On common + rows the IMM is 3.75 times the control (shifted, 407 periods), 8.8 (Annex B) and 10.5 + (shifted 2); the EKF 4.1, 8.9 and 9.6. "Far behind" stands; 4.8 to 22 does not. The + plan's EKF is Gate H's re-tune, not MAN2's frozen one. +- **Shifted 2's "mostly attainable (0.91)"** rests on one clipped runaway reference + (unclipped 1.05 [0.69, 2.96]) and 19 manoeuvres under 20. +- **"The same miss curve" on Annex B** holds below 40 only: above it the control misses + 0.08 against 0.18. Same structure, smaller identifiability part, and no gain from a + matched prior there. +- The control's half-way point is near 20 (0.55 from 10 to 20, 0.36 from 20 to 40). +- E1 on the scored periods is 0.354 of 1,380, against 0.37 of 1,475 on all. +- E3's median of 1.03 is ties (nothing dropped in a quarter of periods); where something + is dropped it is 1.85, median 1.47. +- E4 at 20 is 1.20 where the reference is held (101 periods) and 1.51 elsewhere. +- The pooled rate above 40 is arithmetic from `summary.json` by a script written after the + test (`tl5_supplement.py`), not by bound code. +- Under outliers the detectability table uses unedited bearings (4% of manoeuvres change + side at 20); the edited references do not use the control's effective sd. + +## Not delivered (added to the README's list) + +The split under each way of fitting the reference (FR-005); course and speed in the +estimands; a joint detectability; unit tests for `detect.py` and `run5.py`; one leg in the +paired tables; the paired tables' period counts. + +## The panel's order for what follows (the owner's choice) + +1. **Recommended: a prior that adapts to the period** (a manoeuvre rate estimated from the + period, or a hierarchical or mixed-rate prior), classical, CPU, registered against + `ctl` with the true-prior search as the ceiling and false manoeuvres on held course + reported. +2. Beside it, a hedged track for the periods where the limit is identifiability. +3. Over-reach: a GPU proposer now; calling the gap "mostly identifiability"; reading 1.17 + as the prior's full worth (one seed, median 1.02, more false manoeuvres). diff --git a/specs/017-shifted-gap/tasks.md b/specs/017-shifted-gap/tasks.md index ff5669e6..b8ae4652 100644 --- a/specs/017-shifted-gap/tasks.md +++ b/specs/017-shifted-gap/tasks.md @@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ - [x] T004 Owed: export check on the three trained checkpoints - [x] T005 Owed: unit tests for `study_split4`, the controls-record guard, `run_shard4` - [x] T006 SRD §9 (the control stands; this study); decision record -- [ ] T007 Validation on seed 343 (soundness) -- [ ] T008 Test on seed 344, once; tables by script -- [ ] T009 Panel (five reviewers), corrections -- [ ] T010 Write-up, slides post and deck with track plots; AGENTS.md; kickoff update; PR +- [x] T007 Validation on seed 343 (soundness) +- [x] T008 Test on seed 344, once; tables by script +- [x] T009 Panel (five reviewers), corrections +- [x] T010 Write-up, slides post and deck with track plots; AGENTS.md; kickoff update; PR From 7c076f3fcc1bc568e212d2e38627b7c3e0451c4b Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Claude Date: Sat, 14 Nov 2026 20:33:22 +0000 Subject: [PATCH 5/5] Spec 017: write-up, slides post and deck, kickoff update, AGENTS.md Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.2 Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_019erPajyAwQ6mBQ2Xz4xNHs --- AGENTS.md | 44 +++++- experiments/20261114-tl5/README.md | 2 +- site/blog/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-kickoff.md | 5 + site/blog/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides.md | 46 +++++++ site/blog/2026-11-14-shifted-gap.md | 127 +++++++++++++++++ .../2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/index.html | 129 ++++++++++++++++++ 6 files changed, 346 insertions(+), 7 deletions(-) create mode 100644 site/blog/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides.md create mode 100644 site/blog/2026-11-14-shifted-gap.md create mode 100644 site/static/slides/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/index.html diff --git a/AGENTS.md b/AGENTS.md index 70bd5ded..3c75e753 100644 --- a/AGENTS.md +++ b/AGENTS.md @@ -436,12 +436,36 @@ fresh seed is 342. **Owner 2026-11-14: option A (spec 017)**: the classical control `ctl` (declared at margin 1, quiet probability 0.01) is the standing time-late system; one classical study of whether the shifted-prior gap is identifiability, CPU only, nothing trained; what study L's record owes is made -good. 017 (`specs/017-shifted-gap/`; in progress): `timelate/detect.py` (a true manoeuvre's -detectability: the χ² its omission adds, times held; references told only the detectable ones), -`run5.py` (plan key `runner: run5`: `run4`'s control unchanged, `ref-full`, `ref-dT`, the search -under the split's own prior `true`, IMM and EKF as tracks, references on edited bearings), -`study5.py` (the gap split into an attainable share and identifiability; the rule reads the -attainable share at threshold 20 against 0.5). Seeds 342 tuning, 343 validation, 344 test. +good. 017 (`specs/017-shifted-gap/`; done; a registered study, not a gate; nothing trained): +`timelate/detect.py` (a true manoeuvre's detectability: the χ² its omission adds, times held; +references told only the detectable ones), `run5.py` (plan key `runner: run5`: `run4`'s control +unchanged, `ref-full`, `ref-dT`, the search under the split's own prior `true`, IMM and EKF as +tracks, references on edited bearings), `study5.py`, `scripts/research/tl5_{tables,supplement, +tracks,charts}.py`, workflow `headers/**`. Tuning seed 342 (`experiments/20261114-tl5-tuning/`), +decision `20261114-tl5-decision/` (plan `configs/timelate/tl-f.json` `0b29a95d…`, code +`b32247f8…`, never edited; no decision rule, five estimands and the recommendation's logic fixed), +validation seed 343 (`20261114-tl5-val/`, soundness passed), **test record +`experiments/20261114-tl5/` (seed 344, shifted split 451 scored periods): 0.37 of true manoeuvres +are under a detectability of 20 (Annex B 0.16); control ÷ full reference 2.27 [2.04, 2.55]; not +being told those under 20 costs 1.58; control ÷ that reference 1.43 [1.28, 1.61]; attainable share +0.65 / 0.44 / 0.14 at thresholds 10 / 20 / 40; control ÷ true-prior search 1.17 [1.06, 1.29]; by +the fixed logic a proposer study is not recommended (the control misses 0.18, not over a third, of +manoeuvres above 40). Decided by the panel, round 1** (`review.md`, five approve with findings). +Narrowed: the pooled split is two kinds of period (some manoeuvre under 20, 336 periods: control ÷ +`ref-d20` 1.16; none, 115: 2.65; the 134 periods where the control misses a manoeuvre above 20 +carry 83% of the attainable gap, 2.73 against 1.09 elsewhere; share 0.70 where the bound is tight, +0.20 where loose); the logic's second condition counted manoeuvres, not cost, and turns on the +match tolerance (0.30 / 0.18 / 0.11 at 60 / 120 / 240 s): the "no" is the rule's, not the +evidence's; the attainable part is at least half a prior problem (of 138 missed manoeuvres above +40 the true-prior search finds 66; E5 2.58 where it finds more, 1.07 elsewhere); detectability is +not additive and the references are flattered by true times and handicapped by hard omission, so +E3 and E4 are not bounds; the IMM/EKF ratios in the first record were on 40% of periods (on common +rows 3.8 to 10.5). Not delivered: the split under each way of fitting the reference, course and +speed in the estimands, a joint detectability, unit tests for `detect.py`/`run5.py`. Write-up +`site/blog/2026-11-14-shifted-gap.md`, slides `2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides.md`. Panel's order +(owner's choice): a manoeuvre prior that adapts to the period (classical, CPU; registered against +`ctl`, true-prior search as ceiling, false manoeuvres on held course reported), a hedged track +beside; no GPU proposer now. Seeds 342 to 344 used; 324, 325 unused; the next fresh seed is 345. ## Stack (owner decisions, 2026-10-31) @@ -789,6 +813,14 @@ seeds per carried configuration; nothing above OFFICIAL, mock data only. rows. Record the weights' digest in the scored record, not only in shard headers. A change of shard size reaches every system that starts from C″. Never edit a file the decision record binds while its run is in progress, even to add a field; put new readings in a new script. +- Spec 017 panel: before registering a recommendation's logic, check each condition could fire + on tuning data and that it measures cost, not counts (a pooled miss rate hid that 22% of + periods carried 69% of the gap), and state its sensitivity to the matching tolerance. Split any + pooled "share" by the kind of period before naming it. A single-omission detectability is not + additive: check joint omission before calling manoeuvres hidden. A reference told true times is + flattered even with the right structure; do not call an estimand built on it a bound. A filter + with no state on early rows drops most periods from a paired period-median: report the period + count beside every paired ratio. A test value inside the tuning interval is not a disagreement. - Modal: functions must be defined at module scope with the decorator; functions built in a loop with `serialized=True` cannot be imported in the container ("the 'modal_train' module is not available"), and Modal retries the failed start for as long as the client waits. Bound the diff --git a/experiments/20261114-tl5/README.md b/experiments/20261114-tl5/README.md index 4ccd0afb..4816769a 100644 --- a/experiments/20261114-tl5/README.md +++ b/experiments/20261114-tl5/README.md @@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ below are copied from them. Per-row errors: results branch **Decided by the panel, round 1 (`review.md`): five approve with findings.** Every number below reproduces and the logic's output stands, but the panel changed what it means; read "After the panel" at the end before quoting anything from the sections above it. Sentences -the panel found wrong are struck through there, not silently edited here. +the panel found wrong are listed there; the text above is left as first written. A registered study, not a gate: no pass or fail. The decision record (`experiments/20261114-tl5-decision/`) fixed five estimands and the logic of the diff --git a/site/blog/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-kickoff.md b/site/blog/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-kickoff.md index a89beb1d..493b5c30 100644 --- a/site/blog/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-kickoff.md +++ b/site/blog/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-kickoff.md @@ -55,3 +55,8 @@ times are held, and the share stated); a split may come out mixed, which is a re - The true-prior search beside the control. - Track plots of periods with undetectable manoeuvres, chosen by a rule in the script. - All from committed experiment folders by a script named in the slides post. + +**Update, 2026-11-14 (evening).** Done. Validation on seed 343 passed soundness; the test +on seed 344 was scored once and decided by the panel in one round. The result and what the +panel made of it are in [the write-up](/blog/2026/11/14/shifted-gap) and +[the slides](/blog/2026/11/14/shifted-gap-slides). diff --git a/site/blog/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides.md b/site/blog/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..281d22ad --- /dev/null +++ b/site/blog/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides.md @@ -0,0 +1,46 @@ +--- +title: "Slides: what the shifted-prior gap is made of" +date: 2026-11-14 +tags: [slides, spec-017] +--- + +import Slides from "@site/src/components/Slides"; + +The illustrated companion to [the spec 017 write-up](/blog/2026/11/14/shifted-gap): how +detectable the busier targets' manoeuvres are, what the control misses, the gap as a chain +of references, what the review panel found, and two periods as tracks. + + + + + +## What the figures show + +- **Detectable**: the share of true manoeuvres whose omission adds less than 10, 20 and 40 + to the χ² of the true history's fit, by split. +- **Missed**: on the shifted split, the share of manoeuvres each system misses, by + detectability band. The search under the targets' own prior misses fewer at every band. +- **Chain**: the control against the reference told every manoeuvre, the cost of not being + told the ones under 20, the control against that reference, and the control against the + true-prior search. Grey ticks are median per-period ratios. +- **Share**: the attainable share of the control's gap at each threshold, by split (under + outliers, against references fitted to the edited bearings). +- **Two periods as tracks**, chosen by a rule in the script: of the 20 stored shifted + periods with at least two whole true manoeuvres, the one with the largest share under 20 + and the one with the smallest. + +The panel's split of the gap into two kinds of period is in the write-up and +`experiments/20261114-tl5/review.md`; it is the reviewers' recomputation, shown on a slide +as a table and not as a generated figure. + +## Reproducing the figures + +``` +uv run python scripts/research/tl5_tracks.py experiments/20261114-tl5 +uv run python scripts/research/tl5_charts.py --record experiments/20261114-tl5 --out-dir site/static/img/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides +``` + +The charts read only the committed record; each figure's `.json` sidecar names the inputs' +digests and the commit. `tracks.npz` holds the first 20 shifted periods' tracks, extracted +from the results branch `results/timelate-tl-f-test-43618868241`. The data are seed 344, +5-second bearings, ranges files under `configs/timelate/`, generated in the CI run. diff --git a/site/blog/2026-11-14-shifted-gap.md b/site/blog/2026-11-14-shifted-gap.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..6998eb33 --- /dev/null +++ b/site/blog/2026-11-14-shifted-gap.md @@ -0,0 +1,127 @@ +--- +title: "Why the time-late control is twice the reference on busier targets: part hidden manoeuvres, part the wrong prior" +date: 2026-11-14 +tags: [write-up, spec-017] +--- + +Study L left one gap open on both sides: on targets that manoeuvre more often and less +sharply than Annex B says, the classical control is about twice a fit told the true +history. The owner asked for one cheap classical study of whether that gap is +identifiability, before anyone considers a learned proposer. It is done, on a fresh seed, +with nothing trained. The answer is not one number. In about two thirds of periods the +limit is manoeuvres the bearings barely show; in under a third the control misses +manoeuvres the bearings do show, and at least half of those misses are the prior's, not +the search's. The illustrated companion is +[the slides post](/blog/2026/11/14/shifted-gap-slides). + + + +## What was measured + +For every true manoeuvre, its **detectability**: how much the χ² of the true history's +fit rises when that one manoeuvre is left out, the others' times held. Bearings only, no +prior, no search. Then three kinds of reference: + +- a fit told every manoeuvre (`ref-full`); +- fits told only the manoeuvres above a detectability of 10, 20 or 40; +- the control's own search given the busier targets' true statistics. + +The thresholds bracket what the evidence charges for a manoeuvre under Annex B's prior +(about 22). The plan, code and estimands were bound by digest before the validation and +test seeds existed. No decision rule was registered, because on tuning data the plan's +rule was a coin's toss; instead the logic of the recommendation was fixed in advance. + +## The numbers (test seed 344; shifted split, 451 scored periods) + +| | Threshold 10 | Threshold 20 | Threshold 40 | +| --- | --- | --- | --- | +| Share of true manoeuvres under it | 0.28 | 0.37 | 0.47 | +| Not being told them costs | 1.34 | 1.58 | 2.02 | +| Control ÷ the reference not told them | 1.70 [1.52, 1.90] | 1.43 [1.28, 1.61] | 1.12 [0.99, 1.27] | +| Attainable share of the control's gap | 0.65 | 0.44 [0.33, 0.54] | 0.14 | + +The whole gap is 2.27 [2.04, 2.55]. On Annex B data 0.16 of manoeuvres are under 20; on +these targets 0.37 are. The control misses 0.83 of those and 0.18 of the ones above 40. +Given the targets' own statistics, the same search is 1.17 [1.06, 1.29] better than the +control. + +By the logic fixed beforehand, a proposer study would be recommended only if the control +were separated from the threshold-20 reference by more than 1.10 **and** it missed over a +third of the manoeuvres above 40. The first held (against my forecast); the second did not +(0.18). Output of the logic: not recommended. + +## What the panel made of it + +Five reviewers recomputed everything; all approved with findings. The registration held +and every number reproduces. They changed the reading in four ways. + +**The pooled split is two kinds of period.** Where some manoeuvre is under 20 (336 +periods), the control is only 1.16 times the reference that is not told it: there the +limit is what the bearings can show. Where nothing is under 20 (115 periods), the control +is 2.65 times the reference. Cut the other way: in the 134 periods where the control +misses a manoeuvre above 20 it is 2.73 times the reference, and those periods carry 83% of +the attainable gap; in the other 317 it is 1.09. "0.44 attainable" is an average of +"mostly identifiability" and "all attainable". By geometry, the attainable share is 0.70 +where the bound is tight and 0.20 where it is loose. + +**My rule's second condition measured the wrong thing.** It counted manoeuvres; the cost +is per period. And it depends on how closely a found manoeuvre must match in time: the +miss rate above 40 is 0.30 at 60 seconds, 0.18 at the registered 120, 0.11 at 240. The +"no" is the rule's output. It does not follow from the evidence, and at a tuning value of +0.18 the condition could hardly have fired. I registered it; that was a poor choice. + +**The attainable part is at least half a prior problem.** Of the 138 detectable +manoeuvres the control misses, the same search under the right prior finds 66. Where it +finds more, it is 2.6 times better; elsewhere, 1.07. In most periods with such a miss the +control declares fewer manoeuvres than happened: it under-counts because Annex B's prior +tells it these targets are quiet. A learned proposer feeding the same evidence would +mostly be vetoed by it. + +**The measure is not a bound in either direction.** Detectability is not additive: on 39 +periods a reviewer refitted, leaving out two or three "undetectable" manoeuvres together +cost 20 or more in 44% (in one case 18, 0.2 and 2 singly, 2,481 together). So the +"hidden" share and the cost of hiding are overstated. And the references are flattered by +being told true times: with the right history the control is still 1.6 to 1.7 times the +full reference. I wrote that one estimand was an upper limit and another a lower limit; +neither is. + +## What was wrong in the first record + +- "The tuning seed differed by more than its intervals": false. The test's values lie + inside the tuning intervals. A point estimate from 134 periods was read as a forecast. +- The IMM and EKF ratios (4.8 to 22) were on the 40% of periods where a filter has a state + on most rows; on common rows they are 3.8 to 10.5. Far behind either way. +- Shifted 2's "mostly attainable" rests on one clipped reference and 19 manoeuvres. + +## What was not delivered + +The split under each way of fitting the reference; course and speed in the estimands (the +panel's recomputation: more attainable than range); a joint detectability; unit tests for +the new runner and the detectability code; a smoothed IMM. + +## What this does and does not show + +It shows that on busier targets a good part of the gap cannot be closed by any detector +working from these bearings, that the closable part is concentrated in a minority of +periods, and that the cheapest lever on it is the manoeuvre prior, not the search. + +It does not give "the share that is identifiability": that number moves from 0.35 to 0.86 +with the threshold, and the measure behind it is biased both ways. It does not show a +proposer would fail, only that the evidence would veto much of what it proposed. And the +1.17 for the right prior is one seed, a minority of periods, and bought with more false +manoeuvres (0.48 a period against 0.34). + +## What comes next + +The panel's recommendation, which I adopt as mine: **a prior that adapts to the period** +(a manoeuvre rate estimated from the period itself, or a mixture over rates), classical, +on CPU, registered against the standing control with the true-prior search as its ceiling +and the false-manoeuvre rate on quiet targets reported. Beside it, a hedged track for the +periods where the limit is identifiability. A GPU proposer now would be over-reach. The +choice is the owner's. + +## Records + +`experiments/20261114-tl5-tuning/`, `-tl5-decision/`, `-tl5-val/` and the test record +`experiments/20261114-tl5/` (`review.md`). Seeds 342 to 344 are used; the next fresh seed +is 345. Nothing was trained and nothing spent. diff --git a/site/static/slides/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/index.html b/site/static/slides/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/index.html new file mode 100644 index 00000000..5b95ae51 --- /dev/null +++ b/site/static/slides/2026-11-14-shifted-gap-slides/index.html @@ -0,0 +1,129 @@ + + + + + + What the shifted-prior gap is made of (spec 017) + + + + + +
+
+
+

What the shifted-prior gap is made of

+

Part hidden manoeuvres, part the wrong prior

+

14 November 2026 · spec 017 · gitma2 · nothing trained

+
+ +
+

Where study L left us

+
    +
  • The classical control is the standing time-late system.
    • +
  • On targets busier than Annex B says, it is about twice a fit told the true history. So was the learned model.
    • +
  • Question: is that gap identifiability, or something a better detector could close?
    • +
+

Owner's decision: one cheap classical study, CPU only, before any learned proposer.

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+ +
+

The measure

+ + + fit told every manoeuvreχ² = c + same fit, one manoeuvre left outχ² = c + d + d = detectabilitybearings only: no prior, no search + + references told only manoeuvres with d above 10, 20, 40what a perfect detector might know + the control's search under the targets' own priorwhat knowing the statistics is worth + The evidence charges about 22 for a manoeuvre under Annex B's prior + + +
+ +
+

Over a third of these manoeuvres barely show

+ Share of true manoeuvres under detectability 10, 20 and 40 by split +

Shifted prior: 0.37 under 20. Annex B: 0.16. Test seed 344.

+
+ +
+

The control misses what cannot be seen

+ Share of manoeuvres missed by detectability band for each system +

Given the right prior, the same search misses fewer at every band.

+
+ +
+

The gap as a chain

+ Paired ratios: control over full reference, reference told only detectable manoeuvres over full reference, control over that reference, control over true-prior search +

2.27 in all; 1.58 from not being told manoeuvres under 20; 1.43 beyond that; 1.17 from the prior.

+
+ +
+

No single share

+ Attainable share of the control's gap by threshold and split +

Shifted prior: 0.65, 0.44, 0.14 attainable at thresholds 10, 20, 40.

+
+ +
+

The panel: two kinds of period

+ + + + + + +
Shifted periods, threshold 20nControl ÷ reference
Some manoeuvre under 203361.16 [1.04, 1.30]
Nothing under 201152.65 [2.12, 3.32]
Control misses one above 201342.73 (83% of the gap)
Control finds them all3171.09
+
    +
  • Where a manoeuvre is hidden, the limit is the bearings.
    • +
  • The closable part is under a third of periods.
    • +
  • Of 138 detectable manoeuvres the control misses, the right prior finds 66.
    • +
+

Reviewers' recomputation from the per-row errors; experiments/20261114-tl5/review.md

+
+ +
+

Two periods

+ Track plots of two shifted periods: ownship, target, control and true-history reference +

Chosen by rule: most and fewest manoeuvres under 20 among the stored periods.

+
+ +
+

What was not achieved

+
    +
  • One number for "how much is identifiability": it runs from 0.35 to 0.86 with the threshold.
    • +
  • A bound: the measure is not additive, and the references are flattered by true times.
    • +
  • A sound rule: my second condition counted manoeuvres, not cost, and turns on the match tolerance.
    • +
  • Course and speed in the estimands; a joint detectability; tests for the new runner.
    • +
+
+ +
+

What comes next

+
    +
  • Recommended: a manoeuvre prior that adapts to the period. Classical, CPU.
    • +
  • Registered against the control, with the true-prior search (1.17) as its ceiling.
    • +
  • Beside it: a hedged track where the limit is identifiability.
    • +
  • Not now: a GPU proposer. The evidence would veto much of what it proposed.
    • +
+

The choice is the owner's. Write-up: /blog/2026/11/14/shifted-gap · record: experiments/20261114-tl5 (review.md)

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+ + + +