Certify a bundle with spm-calculator 1.1.0 and the 2022–2036 SPM forecast #618

Part of the US 2036 extension, tracked in PolicyEngine/policyengine-api#3926. The canonical SPM forecast in the current bundle (6.4.0) covers 2022–2035, so every 2036 US household or economy run fails with SPM_YEAR_UNAVAILABLE. The API offers 2036 only once a bundle certifies the extended forecast.

@MaxGhenis @anth-volk, this needs a bundle certification, with these inputs:

• spm-calculator 1.1.0. Extend the canonical forecast horizon to 2036 spm-calculator#51 extends the forecast to 2022–2036 without changing any 2022–2035 value; Release spm-calculator 1.1.0 with the 2022–2036 forecast spm-calculator#52 tracks the release. Today the three extras pin spm-calculator==1.0.0.
• The new forecast digest in src/policyengine/data/bundle/manifest.json → measurements.spm.forecast_content_sha256, which is now 3d86d5c4…. It will be 1.1.0's load_forecast().content_sha256.
• A policyengine-us release that includes:
  • the spm-calculator>=1.1.0,<1.2 pin, which I'll open once 1.1.0 is on PyPI;
  • preferably the CBO February 2026 refresh in PolicyEngine/policyengine-us, linked on #3926, so 2036 rests on CBO data rather than extrapolation.
• The checks: scripts/bundle.py certify-data, generate --include-tros and check --published-spm --include-tros --strict-tros. 2036 must pass and 2037 must still fail.

A question about the model gap: bundle 6.4.0 certifies policyengine-us 2.2.1, while main is on 2.4x. Does populace_us_2024 need recertifying for the newer model before the bundle moves?

The docs and tests change (2022–2036 supported, 2037 the out-of-horizon example) is a draft PR linked below. It should merge with the bundle update.

After the bundle is released, policyengine-api merges its bundle bump together with PolicyEngine/policyengine-api#3928, and policyengine-sim-api deploys the matching worker.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code