[juaristi22]

This certifies the Microcosm UK pair from PolicyEngine/microcosm#1535 on policyengine-uk 2.174.1, the version that built both cuts, so each certifies on its own build. It supersedes #731, the PolicyEngine/microcosm#1491 pair on 2.165.1.

The national

microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261107T020434Z-eeb6093e (microcosm_uk_2024_25):

• Build: Microcosm main at dc00d158f, the merge of UK November event data, PR1: full-time education, single ages 16 to 24, Scottish PRIS diagnostics, energy kWh columns microcosm#1535, with policyengine-uk 2.174.1 and policyengine-core 3.33.3.
  • It certifies on its own build (built_with_model_package).
  • The core stays the bundle's pin (core_binding: bundle_pin), as on main.
• What UK November event data, PR1: full-time education, single ages 16 to 24, Scottish PRIS diagnostics, energy kWh columns microcosm#1535 adds:
  • the FRS full-time education flag, which Universal Credit's education condition reads;
  • ONS's single years of age 16 to 24 by sex, bound in place of the three age bands;
  • HMRC's 2024-25 Scottish property income, measured and held out of the solve;
  • households' electricity and gas kWh as export columns, which policyengine-uk doesn't read.
• H5 sha256: 0a9b77db1c0dee2693cb2d47bad68da34cb662916eee4829942bcd45de581f25.
• Certification in Microcosm:
  • all 7 terminal gates and all 21 release-cut gates passed, and the release certification is shippable;
  • 98.7% of its 1,514 target rows end within 10%.
• Publication: uploaded to the inspect lane on 7 Nov at 03:26 UTC, tag only (--no-latest), and not promoted. The build machine had no emitter yet, so it was published with --allow-missing-staging.

The local area

microcosm-uk-2024-25-dense-20261107T173210Z-38605444 (microcosm_uk_2024_25_dense). Constituency and local-authority regions route to it (regional_release_kind: local_area).

• Build: the national's commit and spine, on policyengine-uk 2.174.1, so it also certifies on its own build, with no accepted model mismatch and no input-surface audit.
  • It uses the parameters of the last local cut, 83802786: K=15, 150,000 households, seed 42 and the same warm start.
  • Two commits on PolicyEngine/microcosm's uk-event-pair-20261107 sit on top of dc00d158f:
    • edd051ecc defers one local council tax cell, Carmarthenshire's band I, where the first build stopped;
    • 03c31df56 signs the gate-only target-fit failures, national and local, of the build at edd051ecc.
• Gates:
  • The reuse build at 03c31df56 passed all 7 terminal gates and every release-blocking gate.
  • The diagnostic high-value-homes support check fails, as it did on earlier local cuts.
• Fit: 98.4% of its 28,712 target rows end within 10%.
• Publication: uploaded to the inspect lane on 7 Nov at 19:36 UTC, tag only (--no-latest), with its staging files.
• H5 sha256: 1b71c5c93f47f497b25ec106d3e13017af6e0c41d808cc7db74f4e0a0dff4bf4.

Impact

• The UK model pin moves from 2.151.0 to 2.174.1.
  • Since 2.170.0 (Autumn Budget 2026 measures in current law policyengine-uk#2719), current law includes these Autumn Budget 2026 measures:
    • the Household Energy Payment and the Pension Tax Allowance;
    • the Carer's Allowance taper;
    • the higher savings and property income rates;
    • the £3,000 trading allowance;
    • the fuel duty and electricity VAT extensions.
  • UK baselines on this bundle include them.
• The data moves from the 2.151.0 pair (a6299504 and c9df4b86) to eeb6093e and 38605444. UK results change with both.
• The household snapshots move with the model.
  • The four UK households gain the £100 Household Energy Payment.
  • The couple with two children also gains £870 of funded childcare.
  • The two households on Universal Credit gain £150 of Warm Home Discount in HBAI income.
  • The US snapshots don't change.
• The Test jobs get 150 minutes, as on Certify the Microcosm UK pair from microcosm#1491 on policyengine-uk 2.165.1 (national 0639b9c7, local area 83802786) #731. On 2.165.1 they took 86 to 105 minutes on Python 3.11 to 3.13, and main's limit of 105 (Let the Test jobs run for 105 minutes #737) would cancel them.

Commits

• 8cd66bfb: the pair, certified by one certify-data run. It also carries:
  • the lock, in which only policyengine-uk moves;
  • the release lock and the TROs;
  • the certified test constants and the changelog fragment.
• b3370346: the household calculator snapshots, regenerated on 2.174.1 (PE_UPDATE_SNAPSHOTS=1).
• 12a6a8cb: the Test jobs' 150-minute limit, in the pull-request and push workflows.

How it was made

uv sync --frozen --extra uk --extra dev --python 3.13
uv pip install policyengine-uk==2.174.1
python scripts/bundle.py certify-data --country uk --data-producer populace \
  --manifest-uri "hf://dataset/policyengine/populace-uk-private@microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261107T020434Z-eeb6093e/releases/microcosm-uk-2024-25-national/release_manifest.json" \
  --regional-manifest-uri "hf://dataset/policyengine/populace-uk-private@microcosm-uk-2024-25-dense-20261107T173210Z-38605444/releases/microcosm-uk-2024-25-dense/release_manifest.json" \
  --model-version 2.174.1
uvx --from uv==0.13.4 uv lock --no-config --no-sources --default-index https://pypi.org/simple --python 3.13
uv sync --frozen --extra uk --extra dev --python 3.13
python scripts/release_lock.py
python scripts/bundle.py generate --include-tros
PE_UPDATE_SNAPSHOTS=1 python -m pytest tests/test_household_calculator_snapshot.py -q
python scripts/bundle.py check
python scripts/bundle.py check --include-tros --strict-tros
python scripts/check_uk_uc_floor.py --dataset microcosm_uk_2024_25 --year 2025 --output uc_floor.json

uk_qualification.rewrite_certified_constants rewrote the certified constants in tests/test_models.py, tests/test_release_manifests.py and tests/test_uk_regions.py. The local-area id was added to its replacements.

Evidence run on this head

• The UC floor passed on eeb6093e (check_uk_uc_floor.py, Great Britain, 2025, within 10%, policyengine-uk 2.174.1). The receipt holds weighted national totals only:

  • benefit units at 0.913 of DWP's figure (0.924 on 0639b9c7, Certify the Microcosm UK pair from microcosm#1491 on policyengine-uk 2.165.1 (national 0639b9c7, local area 83802786) #731);
  • spend at 0.939 of the OBR's (0.954).

• Bundle checks: both bundle.py check runs pass, the second with --include-tros --strict-tros. Its one warning is the US core note that main already carries.

• Lock and lint:

  • release_lock.py passes;
  • ruff format --check and ruff check pass with CI's ruff (0.17.4).

• Local tests:

  • the three certified-constant files: 124 passed;
  • the household snapshots on 2.174.1: 11 passed;
  • 24 bundle, certification, TRO, receipt and region files: 2,342 passed, 3 skipped.

  The full suite runs in CI.

Disclosure

Aggregates only: the shares of target rows within 10%, weighted national totals over many records, synthetic households, and published DWP and OBR figures.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code