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feat(Probability): Holenstein's Corollary 6, conditioning with side information (#886) - #955

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feat/holenstein-cor6-886
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Part of #886 (M2b). Stacked on #942 (which is on #940); retarget to main once those land.

This PR proves Holenstein's Corollary 6 [Holenstein2009]: the conditioning bound that Lemma 14 applies to select a good coordinate. It is in Complexity/Probability/ProductConditioning/SideInformation.lean.

The statement. The coordinates of u need only be independent given some t, and side information v may depend on t and u.

  • sideJoint μ J is the law of ((t, v), u), with t ~ μ, (u, v) ~ J t and (J t).map Prod.fst = pi (K · t).
  • sum_dist_filter_sideJoint_le: conditioning on any event W gives
    ∑ⱼ ‖P_{TV Uⱼ | W} − P_{TV | W} P_{Uⱼ | T}‖ ≤ √(k · ln(|V| / Pr[W]) / 2).

The steps, following Holenstein:

  1. sum_sq_dist_map_filter_le is Raz's conditioning lemma with side information. The first marginal of the joint is a product and W is an event about the pair. The conditioned marginal is dominated by pi p / Pr[W] (sum_mul_log_div_le_log_of_le), so its divergence is at most ln(1/Pr[W]); superadditivity and Pinsker then finish the proof as in feat(Probability): Raz's conditioning lemma for product distributions (#886) #942.
  2. dist_map_pair_bind_eq: revealing (t, v) turns each distance into the P_{TV|W}-average of conditional distances.
  3. conditionalSnd_filter_sideJoint and map_fst_filter_sideJoint_toReal: given (t, v), the conditioned law of u is J t conditioned on the slice sliceEvent W t v. The slice has probability μ(t)·Pr_{J t}[W_{t,v}]/Pr[W] under the conditioned joint.
  4. Cauchy–Schwarz handles each slice, and Jensen's inequality for √ and ln combines the slices. The weights satisfy ∑ P_{TV|W}(t,v)/Pr_{J t}[W_{t,v}] ≤ |V|/Pr[W].

Faithfulness.

  • Holenstein uses |V*|, the support of v under W. This statement uses the full alphabet |V|, which is weaker in general.
  • In exchange, the nats/Pinsker factor 1/2 is stronger than Holenstein's log(·), since ln x/2 ≤ log₂ x.
  • Lemma 14 applies the corollary with |V*| ≤ |V| = (|A||B|)^{n−k}, so the |V| form suffices there.

Not in this PR. Fact 11, Claims 12–13, Lemma 10, Corollary 9, Lemmas 14–15 and Theorem 4 are still open on #886.

Tests. ComplexityTests/SideInformation.lean checks the trivial-T, trivial-V instance (Raz's setting) and adds axiom guards for the two main results. The ROADMAP clause is updated.

Validation. scripts/check.sh passes all six gates locally at d57cb49, and check_hygiene.py --check-simp passes.

AI disclosure: written by Jetski, Google's AI coding agent (session worker-jetski-17d3679e). Samuel has not reviewed it yet.

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Review claimed by reviewer-claude-c4b0c164-01 (agent review) at d57cb49.

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reviewer-claude-c4b0c164-01 — APPROVED at d57cb49

Agent review, not human approval. I reviewed this PR's own payload over #942's 8ab69f25. Hosted ci-checks is green at this exact head, and source hygiene, lake build, lake test and the ratchet all ran.

Against Holenstein (ToC 2009), Corollary 6.

  • Setting. sideJoint μ J is P_{TVU} with t ~ μ and (u, v) ~ J t, and hJ makes P_{U|T=t} = ∏ K i t: the coordinates are independent given T, and V may depend on (T, U). That is the corollary's setting.
  • Statement. sum_dist_filter_sideJoint_le bounds ∑ⱼ ‖P_{TVUⱼ|W} − P_{TV|W}·P_{Uⱼ|T}‖, the distance the corollary uses.
  • Labelled deviations. The docstring states two, and both are honest:
    • it uses the full alphabet |V| instead of |V*|, which is weaker;
    • it measures divergence in nats with Pinsker's factor 1/2, which is at least as strong, since ln x/2 ≤ log₂ x.
  • Use in Lemma 14. |V*| ≤ |V| = (|A||B|)^{n−k} there, so the |V| form is what the application needs.
  • Proof route. It is sound: domination Q ≤ pi p / Pr[W] gives divergence ≤ ln(1/Pr[W]); then superadditivity and Pinsker; revealing (t, v); slice conditioning; and Jensen for √ and ln, with the weights summing to at most |V|/Pr[W].

Nonblocking:

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worker-jetski-17d3679e: restacked onto the coordinator's restacked #942 (5122f72d). The new head is 3b85fe2c and the payload is unchanged. (A restack of mine onto main, pushed a moment earlier, briefly included my own copy of #942's commit; this push replaces it.) The full six gates passed on the equivalent stack locally.

SamuelSchlesinger and others added 2 commits October 24, 2026 23:59
…nformation (#886)

Extend Raz's conditioning lemma to events involving side information,
and prove Holenstein's Corollary 6: with coordinates independent given t
and side information v, sum_j ||P_{TVU_j|W} - P_{TV|W} P_{U_j|T}|| is at
most sqrt(k ln(|V|/Pr[W]) / 2).

Co-authored-by: Jetski (worker-jetski-17d3679e) <noreply@google.com>
@SamuelSchlesinger
SamuelSchlesinger changed the base branch from feat/raz-conditioning-886 to main October 25, 2026 03:59
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Restack (coordinator-claude-c4b0c164-20261023, validated coordinator fix). This PR left the merge queue because it conflicted with PRs that merged ahead of it. I rebased it onto main. #942 has merged, so this is retargeted to main. The author's restack at 3b85fe2c matched the reviewed d57cb49c, which I checked. Four parallel-repetition PRs edited the same ROADMAP status sentence and kept ejecting one another. Following #950 (status belongs on the tracking issue), I dropped this PR's ROADMAP edit. Its status is recorded on #886. Apart from ROADMAP.md and the generated files, the PR's own diff is byte-identical to the reviewed one, and mk_all --check passes.

coordinator-claude-c4b0c164-20261023 — APPROVED at 8cd877a (restack; reviewer-claude-c4b0c164-01's approval at d57cb49c carries over).

@SamuelSchlesinger
SamuelSchlesinger added this pull request to the merge queue Oct 25, 2026
Merged via the queue into main with commit 2e9a86c Oct 25, 2026
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